MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 5/12/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
STLBryanBaker8.55.6549.7%33.8%20.9%11.9%6.2%
NYMJoanAdon8.54.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
HOUJoshWinder8.54.4829.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
HOUChrisArcher8.54.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
CHWLuisGil8.04.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
PITConnorOverton8.04.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
TEXJonHeasley8.04.2225.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
MINJoseUrquidy8.54.1724.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
LADZackWheeler7.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
MINLuisGarcia8.54.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
WSHTaijuanWalker8.53.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
DETJamesKaprielian7.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
KCTaylorHearn8.03.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
CINJTBrubaker8.03.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
NYYDylanCease8.03.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
OAKBeauBrieske7.53.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
PHITylerAnderson7.53.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
BALJordanHicks8.53.2010.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
DylanCeaseNYY6.991.5%82.1%69.0%54.0%39.1%26.2%16.2%
ZackWheelerLAD6.487.9%76.1%61.2%45.3%30.8%19.3%11.2%
LuisGarciaMIN5.376.8%60.2%42.8%27.5%16.1%8.6%4.2%
TaylorHearnKC4.972.5%54.7%37.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
TylerAndersonPHI4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
ConnorOvertonPIT4.667.1%48.3%31.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
LuisGilCHW4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
JamesKaprielianDET4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
JoanAdonNYM4.566.1%47.2%30.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
JoseUrquidyMIN4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
JTBrubakerCIN4.361.4%42.0%25.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
TaijuanWalkerWSH4.158.6%39.1%23.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
JordanHicksBAL4.158.0%38.5%22.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
ChrisArcherHOU4.057.0%37.5%21.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
JoshWinderHOU3.751.0%31.7%17.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
BeauBrieskeOAK3.444.4%25.8%13.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
JonHeasleyTEX3.138.0%20.5%9.6%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
BryanBakerSTL2.320.3%8.5%3.1%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Team Opp PA ProjHR HRProbability xHROdds
Rhys HoskinsPHILAD4.360.3523.8%+319
Byron BuxtonMINHOU4.630.3423.4%+328
Salvador PerezKCTEX4.570.3322.9%+336
Corey SeagerTEXKC4.400.3322.9%+336
Yordan AlvarezHOUMIN4.520.3322.9%+336
Bryce HarperPHILAD4.470.3121.9%+356
Jose AltuveHOUMIN4.840.3021.4%+367
Brad MillerTEXKC4.620.2920.9%+378
Yordan AlvarezHOUMIN4.510.2920.9%+378
Gavin SheetsCHWNYY3.970.2920.9%+378
Giancarlo StantonNYYCHW4.400.2619.3%+418
Tyler NaquinCINPIT4.170.2518.7%+434
Kyle TuckerHOUMIN4.280.2518.7%+434
Pete AlonsoNYMWSH4.550.2518.7%+434
Brandon DruryCINPIT4.720.2418.2%+451
Dan VogelbachPITCIN4.270.2418.2%+451
Harrison BaderSTLBAL3.900.2418.2%+451
A.J. PollockCHWNYY4.080.2317.6%+469
Kyle SchwarberPHILAD4.140.2317.6%+469
Juan SotoWSHNYM4.520.2317.6%+469
Ryan MountcastleBALSTL4.370.2317.6%+469
Jose AltuveHOUMIN4.850.2217.0%+490
Rougned OdorBALSTL4.250.2217.0%+490
Josh BellWSHNYM4.410.2217.0%+490
Colin MoranCINPIT4.280.2217.0%+490
Cedric MullinsBALSTL4.810.2217.0%+490
Nelson CruzWSHNYM4.300.2116.3%+512
Joey GalloNYYCHW4.060.2116.3%+512
Tyler O'NeillSTLBAL4.240.2116.3%+512
Kyle TuckerHOUMIN4.300.2116.3%+512
Ryan O'HearnKCTEX4.460.2116.3%+512
Luis RobertCHWNYY4.300.2116.3%+512
Francisco LindorNYMWSH4.660.2015.7%+536
Austin HaysBALSTL4.480.2015.7%+536
Chas McCormickHOUMIN4.190.2015.7%+536
Jed LowrieOAKDET4.610.1915.1%+564
Nolan ArenadoSTLBAL4.460.1915.1%+564
Jose AbreuCHWNYY4.410.1915.1%+564
Mookie BettsLADPHI4.600.1915.1%+564
Max KeplerMINHOU4.520.1915.1%+564
Aaron JudgeNYYCHW4.620.1915.1%+564
Tim AndersonCHWNYY4.630.1915.1%+564
Jonah HeimTEXKC4.290.1915.1%+564
Jose SiriHOUMIN4.060.1915.1%+564
Nick CastellanosPHILAD4.580.1814.4%+594
Tommy PhamCINPIT4.610.1814.4%+594
Max MuncyLADPHI4.150.1814.4%+594
Alex BregmanHOUMIN4.620.1814.4%+594
Seth BrownOAKDET4.500.1814.4%+594
Jose MirandaMINHOU4.470.1814.4%+594
Anthony RizzoNYYCHW4.510.1713.7%+628
Freddie FreemanLADPHI4.490.1713.7%+628
Yasmani GrandalCHWNYY4.190.1713.7%+628
Gary SanchezMINHOU4.400.1713.7%+628
Alex BregmanHOUMIN4.630.1713.7%+628
Bryan ReynoldsPITCIN4.490.1713.7%+628
Ryan JeffersMINHOU3.960.1713.7%+628
Yadiel HernandezWSHNYM4.190.1713.7%+628
Marcus SemienTEXKC4.510.1613.1%+666
Yoan MoncadaCHWNYY4.520.1613.1%+666
Adolis GarciaTEXKC4.180.1613.1%+666
Eli WhiteTEXKC3.730.1613.1%+666
Gilberto CelestinoMINHOU3.850.1613.1%+666
Paul GoldschmidtSTLBAL4.570.1512.4%+709
Starling MarteNYMWSH4.770.1512.4%+709
Robbie GrossmanDETOAK4.550.1512.4%+709
Max KeplerMINHOU4.580.1512.4%+709
Trey ManciniBALSTL4.700.1512.4%+709
Austin MeadowsDETOAK4.440.1512.4%+709
Michael PerezPITCIN3.830.1512.4%+709
Keibert RuizWSHNYM4.080.1512.4%+709
Ryan JeffersMINHOU3.800.1512.4%+709
Jeremy PenaHOUMIN4.080.1512.4%+709
Martin MaldonadoHOUMIN3.970.1411.6%+759
Martin MaldonadoHOUMIN3.950.1411.6%+759
Jorge PolancoMINHOU4.290.1411.6%+759
Chris TaylorLADPHI3.820.1411.6%+759
Ben GamelPITCIN4.600.1411.6%+759
Hunter DozierKCTEX4.340.1411.6%+759
Anthony SantanderBALSTL4.590.1411.6%+759
Ramon LaureanoOAKDET4.390.1411.6%+759
Nathaniel LoweTEXKC3.960.1411.6%+759
Will SmithLADPHI4.260.1411.6%+759
Sheldon NeuseOAKDET4.720.1411.6%+759
Dylan CarlsonSTLBAL4.130.1411.6%+759
Yoshitomo TsutsugoPITCIN4.160.1411.6%+759
Luis BarreraOAKDET4.160.1411.6%+759
Gilberto CelestinoMINHOU3.690.1411.6%+759
Jeremy PenaHOUMIN4.170.1411.6%+759
Justin TurnerLADPHI4.040.1310.9%+816
Mike MoustakasCINPIT4.500.1310.9%+816
Aaron HicksNYYCHW4.170.1310.9%+816
J.T. RealmutoPHILAD4.250.1310.9%+816
Jorge PolancoMINHOU4.250.1310.9%+816
Gary SanchezMINHOU4.360.1310.9%+816
Matt ReynoldsCINPIT3.940.1310.9%+816
Tommy EdmanSTLBAL4.680.1310.9%+816
Kole CalhounTEXKC4.070.1210.2%+883
Jean SeguraPHILAD4.030.1210.2%+883
Christian BethancourtOAKDET4.270.1210.2%+883
Michael TaylorKCTEX4.010.1210.2%+883
Trea TurnerLADPHI4.370.1210.2%+883
Jeimer CandelarioDETOAK4.330.1210.2%+883
Yulieski GurrielHOUMIN4.390.1210.2%+883
Juan YepezSTLBAL4.350.1210.2%+883
Jose MirandaMINHOU4.180.1210.2%+883
Diego CastilloPITCIN4.050.1210.2%+883
Bryson StottPHILAD3.920.1210.2%+883
Jack SuwinskiPITCIN3.940.1210.2%+883
Tucker BarnhartDETOAK3.660.119.4%+962
Andrew BenintendiKCTEX4.680.119.4%+962
Yulieski GurrielHOUMIN4.410.119.4%+962
Cody BellingerLADPHI3.930.119.4%+962
Kyle FarmerCINPIT4.050.119.4%+962
Tyler StephensonCINPIT4.390.119.4%+962
Spencer TorkelsonDETOAK3.770.119.4%+962
MJ MelendezKCTEX4.120.119.4%+962
Jonathan SchoopDETOAK3.990.108.6%+1058
Adam EngelCHWNYY3.850.108.6%+1058
Lane ThomasWSHNYM3.750.108.6%+1058
Cole TuckerPITCIN3.720.108.6%+1058
Royce LewisMINHOU3.740.108.6%+1058
Miguel CabreraDETOAK4.220.097.8%+1174
Robinson ChirinosBALSTL4.030.097.8%+1174
Leury GarciaCHWNYY3.740.097.8%+1174
Gio UrshelaMINHOU4.140.097.8%+1174
Gio UrshelaMINHOU4.070.097.8%+1174
Tomas NidoNYMWSH3.990.097.8%+1174
Nick SolakTEXKC3.850.097.8%+1174
TJ FriedlCINPIT4.830.097.8%+1174
Brendan DonovanSTLBAL3.790.097.8%+1174
DJ LeMahieuNYYCHW4.730.087.0%+1320
Mark CanhaNYMWSH4.320.087.0%+1320
Tony KempOAKDET4.830.087.0%+1320
J.D. DavisNYMWSH4.210.087.0%+1320
Willi CastroDETOAK3.880.087.0%+1320
Ramon UriasBALSTL4.140.087.0%+1320
Jorge MateoBALSTL3.920.087.0%+1320
Michael BrantleyHOUMIN4.740.076.2%+1507
Josh DonaldsonNYYCHW4.280.076.2%+1507
Odubel HerreraPHILAD3.810.076.2%+1507
Whit MerrifieldKCTEX4.230.076.2%+1507
Brandon NimmoNYMWSH4.880.076.2%+1507
Harold CastroDETOAK4.100.076.2%+1507
Cesar HernandezWSHNYM4.630.065.4%+1757
Maikel FrancoWSHNYM3.970.065.4%+1757
Alec BohmPHILAD4.690.065.4%+1757
Kevin SmithOAKDET4.050.065.4%+1757
Bobby Witt Jr.KCTEX4.790.065.4%+1757
Royce LewisMINHOU4.030.065.4%+1757