MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 8/5/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
MILRobertDugger9.05.2843.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
PHIJosiahGray9.05.1040.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
HOUBryanShaw8.54.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
TBBryanGarcia8.54.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
BALMitchKeller8.54.6331.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
LADSeanManaea8.54.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
NYYDakotaHudson8.54.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
BOSZackGreinke9.04.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
NYMIanAnderson8.54.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
CHWGlennOtto8.04.4829.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
ARIGermanMarquez8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
KCJoshWinckowski9.04.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
TORTylerMahle8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
MINJoseBerrios8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
SEAPatrickSandoval7.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
COLMadisonBumgarner8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
ATLTaijuanWalker8.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
STLNestorCortes8.53.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
WSHKyleGibson9.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
SDTonyGonsolin8.53.8819.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
PITDeanKremer8.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
CINEricLauer9.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
CLEFramberValdez8.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
DETCoreyKluber8.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
TEXDylanCease8.03.5214.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
LAARobbieRay7.02.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
DylanCeaseTEX7.192.5%83.9%71.6%56.9%42.1%28.8%18.3%
RobbieRayLAA6.689.3%78.4%64.1%48.4%33.8%21.7%12.9%
TylerMahleTOR6.387.3%75.2%60.0%44.0%29.7%18.4%10.5%
RobertDuggerMIL6.186.0%73.2%57.5%41.5%27.4%16.6%9.3%
SeanManaeaLAD6.084.5%71.0%54.8%38.7%25.1%14.9%8.1%
EricLauerCIN5.681.3%66.2%49.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
FramberValdezCLE5.680.7%65.5%48.5%32.7%20.0%11.3%5.8%
TonyGonsolinSD5.579.6%63.9%46.8%31.1%18.8%10.4%5.3%
NestorCortesSTL5.479.1%63.3%46.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
JoseBerriosMIN5.478.7%62.7%45.4%29.8%17.8%9.7%4.9%
PatrickSandovalSEA5.478.3%62.2%44.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
TaijuanWalkerATL5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
JosiahGrayPHI5.275.7%58.7%41.2%26.2%15.1%7.9%3.8%
MadisonBumgarnerCOL5.174.3%57.0%39.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
IanAndersonNYM5.174.2%56.8%39.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
JustinSteeleMIA4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
CoreyKluberDET4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
KyleGibsonWSH4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
GlennOttoCHW4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
DeanKremerPIT4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
GermanMarquezARI4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
MitchKellerBAL4.361.4%42.0%25.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
DakotaHudsonNYY3.852.0%32.6%18.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
JoshWinckowskiKC3.750.2%30.9%16.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
NickNeidertCHC3.648.7%29.5%15.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
ZackGreinkeBOS3.648.1%29.0%15.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
BryanGarciaTB3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
BryanShawHOU1.23.5%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team SplitAdv? HRPF OppSP HRProb% xHROdds
KyleSchwarberPHIYes106JosiahGray29.1%+245
RhysHoskinsPHINo110JosiahGray26.6%+275
TeoscarHernandezTORNo98TylerMahle26.0%+285
YordanAlvarezHOUYes103BryanShaw25.5%+290
ByronBuxtonMINNo98JoseBerrios24.3%+310
BryanReynoldsPITYes110DeanKremer23.7%+320
AnthonySantanderBALYes110MitchKeller23.2%+330
VladimirGuerrero Jr.TORNo98TylerMahle23.0%+335
WillsonContrerasCHCNo103NickNeidert22.8%+340
PatrickWisdomCHCNo103NickNeidert22.8%+340
RafaelDeversBOSYes92ZackGreinke21.9%+355
MookieBettsLADYes107SeanManaea21.8%+360
AnthonyRizzoNYYYes97DakotaHudson21.8%+360
KyleTuckerHOUYes103BryanShaw21.7%+360
JoseAltuveHOUNo99BryanShaw21.2%+370
SalvadorPerezKCNo92JoshWinckowski21.1%+375
RowdyTellezMILYes101RobertDugger20.8%+380
DarickHallPHIYes106JosiahGray20.4%+390
PaulGoldschmidtSTLYes91NestorCortes20.4%+390
NolanArenadoSTLYes91NestorCortes20.4%+390
C.J.CronCOLYes93MadisonBumgarner20.2%+395
BobbyWitt Jr.KCNo92JoshWinckowski20.1%+395
NelsonVelazquezCHCNo103NickNeidert19.7%+410
BrandonDrurySDNo107TonyGonsolin19.6%+410
CarlosCorreaMINNo98JoseBerrios19.5%+415
EugenioSuarezSEAYes99PatrickSandoval19.5%+415
AaronJudgeNYYNo91DakotaHudson19.5%+415
HunterRenfroeMILNo103RobertDugger18.5%+440
WillyAdamesMILNo103RobertDugger18.5%+440
MattChapmanTORNo98TylerMahle18.4%+445
FreddieFreemanLADNo102SeanManaea18.3%+445
MaxStassiLAAYes99RobbieRay18.3%+445
JoseRamirezCLEYes99FramberValdez18.3%+445
MattOlsonATLYes95TaijuanWalker18.3%+445
MarcellOzunaATLNo98TaijuanWalker17.8%+460
GeorgeSpringerTORNo98TylerMahle17.8%+460
ChristianWalkerARINo93GermanMarquez17.7%+465
Ji-ManChoiTBYes94BryanGarcia17.6%+470
TrentGrishamSDYes102TonyGonsolin17.5%+470
ShoheiOhtaniLAANo96RobbieRay17.5%+470
LuisUriasMILNo103RobertDugger17.3%+480
ChristopherMorelCHCNo103NickNeidert17.3%+480
JoeyVottoCINNo101EricLauer17.2%+480
JorgePolancoMINYes99JoseBerrios17.1%+485
JaredWalshLAANo96RobbieRay17.0%+490
JuanSotoSDYes102TonyGonsolin16.9%+495
JeremyPenaHOUNo99BryanShaw16.8%+495
TreaTurnerLADYes107SeanManaea16.7%+500
CoreySeagerTEXYes101DylanCease16.7%+500
AustinRileyATLNo98TaijuanWalker16.6%+500
BrandonLoweTBYes94BryanGarcia16.4%+510
MJMelendezKCYes92JoshWinckowski16.1%+520
KetelMarteARIYes99GermanMarquez15.8%+530
J.D.MartinezBOSNo92ZackGreinke15.8%+530
HunterDozierKCNo92JoshWinckowski15.8%+530
AustinHaysBALNo112MitchKeller15.8%+535
JoeyGalloLADNo102SeanManaea15.7%+535
JesusAguilarMIAYes103JustinSteele15.5%+545
NathanielLoweTEXYes101DylanCease15.4%+550
RougnedOdorBALYes110MitchKeller15.1%+560
TyFranceSEAYes99PatrickSandoval15.0%+565
RyanMountcastleBALNo112MitchKeller15.0%+565
AdolisGarciaTEXNo95DylanCease15.0%+565
AlexBregmanHOUNo99BryanShaw14.9%+570
RandyArozarenaTBNo99BryanGarcia14.9%+570
J.T.RealmutoPHINo110JosiahGray14.8%+575
LukeVoitWSHNo110KyleGibson14.8%+575
MaxMuncyLADNo102SeanManaea14.6%+585
DavidPeraltaTBYes94BryanGarcia14.5%+585
MannyMachadoSDNo107TonyGonsolin14.5%+590
AndrewVaughnCHWNo95GlennOtto14.4%+595
OneilCruzPITYes110DeanKremer14.4%+595
CarlosSantanaSEAYes99PatrickSandoval14.4%+595
JuricksonProfarSDYes102TonyGonsolin14.2%+605
DannyJansenTORNo98TylerMahle14.1%+610
JoseMirandaMINNo98JoseBerrios14.1%+610
NickFortesMIAYes103JustinSteele14.1%+610
NelsonCruzWSHNo110KyleGibson14.1%+610
JonahHeimTEXYes101DylanCease14.1%+610
FranciscoLindorNYMYes95IanAnderson14.0%+615
GleyberTorresNYYNo91DakotaHudson13.9%+620
WillSmithLADYes107SeanManaea13.8%+625
EloyJimenezCHWNo95GlennOtto13.8%+625
LuisRobertCHWNo95GlennOtto13.8%+625
CalRaleighSEAYes99PatrickSandoval13.6%+635
BrandonNimmoNYMYes95IanAnderson13.4%+650
DanVogelbachNYMYes95IanAnderson13.4%+650
JoseTrevinoNYYNo91DakotaHudson13.3%+655
JeimerCandelarioDETYes94CoreyKluber13.3%+655
YadielHernandezWSHYes106KyleGibson13.2%+660
DaultonVarshoARIYes99GermanMarquez13.2%+660
RandalGrichukCOLYes93MadisonBumgarner12.9%+675
JoAdellLAAYes99RobbieRay12.9%+675
JavierBaezDETNo99CoreyKluber12.9%+675
RamonUriasBALNo112MitchKeller12.8%+680
PeteAlonsoNYMNo98IanAnderson12.8%+680
AlejandroKirkTORNo98TylerMahle12.8%+680
MichaelHarris IIATLYes95TaijuanWalker12.7%+685
TyroneTaylorMILNo103RobertDugger12.6%+690
LaneThomasWSHNo110KyleGibson12.6%+695
CharlieBlackmonCOLNo99MadisonBumgarner12.5%+700
TaylorWardLAAYes99RobbieRay12.2%+720
TommyPhamBOSNo92ZackGreinke12.1%+725
DansbySwansonATLNo98TaijuanWalker12.1%+725
BoBichetteTORNo98TylerMahle12.1%+725
JonathanIndiaCINYes103EricLauer11.8%+745
LarsNootbaarSTLNo97NestorCortes11.7%+755
BrendanRodgersCOLYes93MadisonBumgarner11.5%+765
JoshDonaldsonNYYNo91DakotaHudson11.3%+780
CalMitchellPITYes110DeanKremer11.2%+790
YoanMoncadaCHWYes101GlennOtto11.2%+795
JoseAbreuCHWNo95GlennOtto11.1%+800
AlekThomasARIYes99GermanMarquez11.0%+810
XanderBogaertsBOSNo92ZackGreinke10.8%+825
ChristianVazquezHOUNo99BryanShaw10.8%+830
GioUrshelaMINNo98JoseBerrios10.7%+835
RonaldAcunaATLNo98TaijuanWalker10.7%+835
DavidFletcherLAAYes99RobbieRay10.7%+840
ChristianYelichMILYes101RobertDugger10.4%+860
SeiyaSuzukiCHCNo103NickNeidert10.4%+860
JoshHarrisonCHWNo95GlennOtto10.4%+860
EricHosmerBOSYes92ZackGreinke10.3%+870
VinniePasquantinoKCYes92JoshWinckowski10.3%+870
DonovanSolanoCINYes103EricLauer10.2%+880
AlbertAlmora Jr.CINYes103EricLauer10.2%+880
NickCastellanosPHINo110JosiahGray10.2%+880
CarsonKellyARINo93GermanMarquez10.2%+880
BrysonStottPHIYes106JosiahGray10.1%+890
JoseSiriTBNo99BryanGarcia10.0%+895
IanHappCHCYes96NickNeidert10.0%+900
TaylorWallsTBYes94BryanGarcia9.8%+920
JesseWinkerSEANo96PatrickSandoval9.7%+925
TimAndersonCHWNo95GlennOtto9.7%+935
VictorCaratiniMILYes101RobertDugger9.7%+935
AndrewMcCutchenMILNo103RobertDugger9.6%+940
KevinNewmanPITNo112DeanKremer9.5%+950
JoshRojasARIYes99GermanMarquez9.5%+955
ChristianArroyoBOSNo92ZackGreinke9.4%+965
MiguelRojasMIAYes103JustinSteele9.4%+965
BryanDe La CruzMIAYes103JustinSteele9.4%+965
LuisGarciaWSHNo110KyleGibson9.4%+965
ChristianBethancourtTBNo99BryanGarcia9.3%+975
PaulDeJongSTLYes91NestorCortes9.1%+995
TylerO'NeillSTLYes91NestorCortes9.1%+995
EddieRosarioATLYes95TaijuanWalker9.1%+995
LuisRengifoLAAYes99RobbieRay9.1%+1005
MarcusSemienTEXNo95DylanCease9.0%+1015
JoshBellSDYes102TonyGonsolin8.9%+1020
AlexVerdugoBOSYes92ZackGreinke8.9%+1025
P.J.HigginsCHCNo103NickNeidert8.8%+1030
JasonDelayPITNo112DeanKremer8.7%+1055
JoseIglesiasCOLYes93MadisonBumgarner8.6%+1070
AaronHicksNYYYes97DakotaHudson8.6%+1070
MattReynoldsCINYes103EricLauer8.5%+1070
CharlesLeblancMIAYes103JustinSteele8.5%+1070
YulieskiGurrielHOUNo99BryanShaw8.5%+1070
BrandonMarshPHIYes106JosiahGray8.4%+1085
AndresGimenezCLENo103FramberValdez8.4%+1095
VictorReyesDETYes94CoreyKluber8.3%+1105
CodyBellingerLADNo102SeanManaea8.3%+1105
AustinHedgesCLEYes99FramberValdez8.2%+1115
NickyLopezKCYes92JoshWinckowski8.1%+1125
JakeMcCarthyARIYes99GermanMarquez7.9%+1165
MarkContrerasMINYes99JoseBerrios7.9%+1165
ConnorJoeCOLYes93MadisonBumgarner7.8%+1185
TreyManciniHOUNo99BryanShaw7.7%+1190
YandyDiazTBNo99BryanGarcia7.7%+1190
StarlingMarteNYMNo98IanAnderson7.7%+1205
TomasNidoNYMNo98IanAnderson7.7%+1205
NickSenzelCINYes103EricLauer7.7%+1205
AristidesAquinoCINYes103EricLauer7.7%+1205
MaikelFrancoWSHNo110KyleGibson7.7%+1205
AlbertPujolsSTLYes91NestorCortes7.6%+1210
TommyEdmanSTLYes91NestorCortes7.6%+1210
KeibertRuizWSHYes106KyleGibson7.6%+1220
Ha-SeongKimSDNo107TonyGonsolin7.5%+1240
EzequielDuranTEXNo95DylanCease7.5%+1240
RyanMcMahonCOLNo99MadisonBumgarner7.4%+1255
JakeCronenworthSDYes102TonyGonsolin7.3%+1270
KoltenWongMILYes101RobertDugger7.2%+1280
NicoHoernerCHCNo103NickNeidert7.2%+1285
EliasDiazCOLYes93MadisonBumgarner7.0%+1335
BenGamelPITYes110DeanKremer6.9%+1345
CedricMullinsBALYes110MitchKeller6.9%+1345
Ke'BryanHayesPITNo112DeanKremer6.9%+1350
GarySanchezMINNo98JoseBerrios6.9%+1350
KyleFarmerCINYes103EricLauer6.8%+1375
CesarHernandezWSHYes106KyleGibson6.7%+1395
MylesStrawCLEYes99FramberValdez6.5%+1430
KyleLewisSEAYes99PatrickSandoval6.5%+1430
JarredKelenicSEANo96PatrickSandoval6.5%+1435
DJLeMahieuNYYNo91DakotaHudson6.4%+1455
KoleCalhounTEXYes101DylanCease6.4%+1465
YasmaniGrandalCHWYes101GlennOtto6.4%+1465