MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 5/6/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BOSVincentVelasquez8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
HOUBeauBrieske8.04.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
ARIChadKuhl8.54.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
PITConnorOverton8.54.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
MINColeIrvin7.54.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
BALCarlosHernandez8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
CINJTBrubaker8.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
ATLEricLauer8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
MILJesseChavez8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
COLMerrillKelly8.53.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
SFJordanHicks7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
KCJordanLyles8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
CHWNathanEovaldi8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
SEAMattWisler7.03.6516.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
STLAlexCobb7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
TORShaneBieber6.53.4613.7%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
SDSandyAlcantara6.53.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
DETLuisGarcia8.03.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
TBLoganGilbert7.03.3512.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
OAKJoshWinder7.53.2911.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
MIAYuDarvish6.53.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
CLEKevinGausman6.53.048.8%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
KevinGausmanCLE7.293.0%84.8%72.9%58.5%43.7%30.3%19.5%
ShaneBieberTOR6.991.5%82.1%69.0%54.0%39.1%26.2%16.2%
YuDarvishMIA6.689.4%78.5%64.2%48.6%33.9%21.8%13.0%
NathanEovaldiCHW6.488.3%76.8%62.1%46.2%31.7%20.0%11.7%
AlexCobbSTL6.488.2%76.6%61.8%45.9%31.4%19.8%11.5%
MattWislerSEA6.286.2%73.5%57.8%41.8%27.7%16.9%9.5%
SandyAlcantaraSD5.983.5%69.4%53.0%37.0%23.6%13.8%7.4%
LuisGarciaDET5.883.2%69.0%52.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
EricLauerATL5.580.1%64.6%47.5%31.7%19.3%10.7%5.5%
LoganGilbertTB5.478.3%62.2%44.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
MerrillKellyCOL5.276.2%59.4%41.9%26.8%15.5%8.2%4.0%
HuascarYnoaMIL4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
JoanAdonLAA4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
JTBrubakerCIN4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
JordanLylesKC4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
VincentVelasquezBOS4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
ChadKuhlARI4.259.5%40.0%23.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
ColeIrvinMIN4.057.2%37.7%22.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
JoshWinderOAK4.055.9%36.3%20.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
BeauBrieskeHOU3.750.6%31.3%17.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
CarlosHernandezBAL3.750.2%30.9%16.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
ConnorOvertonPIT3.137.1%19.8%9.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
JaimeBarriaWSH3.035.9%19.0%8.7%3.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%
JordanHicksSF2.421.1%9.0%3.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Team Opp PA ProjHR HRProbability xHROdds
George SpringerTORCLE4.770.426.0%+285
Salvador PerezKCBAL4.600.3423.4%+328
Yordan AlvarezHOUDET4.310.3322.9%+336
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORCLE4.550.3322.9%+336
Mike ZuninoTBSEA3.870.3222.4%+346
Jose AltuveHOUDET4.640.3121.9%+356
Byron BuxtonMINOAK4.650.3121.9%+356
Darin RufSFSTL4.420.3121.9%+356
Rafael DeversBOSCHW4.520.321.4%+367
C.J. CronCOLARI4.380.321.4%+367
Jared WalshLAAWSH4.080.321.4%+367
Randal GrichukCOLARI4.490.2820.4%+391
Shohei OhtaniLAAWSH4.310.2719.8%+404
Matt OlsonATLMIL4.420.2619.3%+418
Jorge PolancoMINOAK4.540.2518.7%+434
Joc PedersonSFSTL4.650.2518.7%+434
Randy ArozarenaTBSEA4.540.2518.7%+434
Matt ChapmanTORCLE4.210.2518.7%+434
J.D. MartinezBOSCHW4.290.2317.6%+469
Jose AbreuCHWBOS4.550.2317.6%+469
Kyle TuckerHOUDET4.090.2317.6%+469
Dan VogelbachPITCIN4.430.2317.6%+469
Nelson CruzWSHLAA4.490.2317.6%+469
Ronald AcunaATLMIL4.530.2217.0%+490
Sam HilliardCOLARI3.930.2217.0%+490
Hunter RenfroeMILATL4.160.2217.0%+490
Bryan ReynoldsPITCIN4.650.2217.0%+490
Adam EngelCHWBOS4.660.2116.3%+512
Colin MoranCINPIT4.070.2116.3%+512
Mike TroutLAAWSH4.420.2116.3%+512
Jorge SolerMIASD4.430.2116.3%+512
Max StassiLAAWSH3.970.215.7%+536
Sean MurphyOAKMIN4.520.215.7%+536
Adam DuvallATLMIL3.870.1915.1%+564
Trevor StoryBOSCHW4.630.1915.1%+564
Jose RamirezCLETOR4.330.1915.1%+564
Ryan McMahonCOLARI4.270.1915.1%+564
Akil BaddooDETHOU4.640.1915.1%+564
Chas McCormickHOUDET3.980.1915.1%+564
Jesus AguilarMIASD4.540.1915.1%+564
Jesus SanchezMIASD4.320.1915.1%+564
Seth BrownOAKMIN4.410.1915.1%+564
Ty FranceSEATB4.40.1915.1%+564
Brandon LoweTBSEA4.430.1915.1%+564
Bo BichetteTORCLE4.660.1915.1%+564
Josh BellWSHLAA4.60.1915.1%+564
Austin HaysBALKC4.320.1814.4%+594
Tim AndersonCHWBOS4.770.1814.4%+594
Tommy PhamCINPIT4.410.1814.4%+594
Javier BaezDETHOU4.420.1814.4%+594
Yulieski GurrielHOUDET4.20.1814.4%+594
Avisail GarciaMIASD4.210.1814.4%+594
Willy AdamesMILATL4.60.1814.4%+594
Rowdy TellezMILATL4.270.1814.4%+594
Max KeplerMINOAK4.430.1814.4%+594
Manny MachadoSDMIA4.370.1814.4%+594
Brett PhillipsTBSEA3.980.1814.4%+594
Daulton VarshoARICOL4.580.1713.7%+628
Austin RileyATLMIL4.310.1713.7%+628
Tyler StephensonCINPIT4.190.1713.7%+628
Ryan O'HearnKCBAL4.490.1713.7%+628
Jazz ChisholmMIASD4.650.1713.7%+628
Jed LowrieOAKMIN4.630.1713.7%+628
Eugenio SuarezSEATB4.180.1713.7%+628
Gavin SheetsCHWBOS4.110.1613.1%+666
Brandon DruryCINPIT4.520.1613.1%+666
Elias DiazCOLARI4.150.1613.1%+666
Connor JoeCOLARI4.710.1613.1%+666
Andrew McCutchenMILATL4.380.1613.1%+666
Stephen PiscottyOAKMIN4.290.1613.1%+666
Ben GamelPITCIN4.760.1613.1%+666
Brandon CrawfordSFSTL4.310.1613.1%+666
Wander FrancoTBSEA4.650.1613.1%+666
Carson KellyARICOL3.910.1512.4%+709
Ryan MountcastleBALKC4.20.1512.4%+709
TJ FriedlCINPIT4.630.1512.4%+709
Brendan RodgersCOLARI4.040.1512.4%+709
Jeimer CandelarioDETHOU4.080.1512.4%+709
Austin MeadowsDETHOU4.310.1512.4%+709
Alex BregmanHOUDET4.420.1512.4%+709
Michael TaylorKCBAL4.050.1512.4%+709
Sheldon NeuseOAKMIN4.740.1512.4%+709
Roberto PerezPITCIN3.880.1512.4%+709
Juan SotoWSHLAA4.710.1512.4%+709
Ketel MarteARICOL4.020.1411.6%+759
Seth BeerARICOL4.130.1411.6%+759
Trey ManciniBALKC4.540.1411.6%+759
A.J. PollockCHWBOS4.220.1411.6%+759
Austin HedgesCLETOR3.660.1411.6%+759
Josh NaylorCLETOR4.110.1411.6%+759
Miguel CabreraDETHOU4.190.1411.6%+759
Andrew BenintendiKCBAL4.720.1411.6%+759
Taylor WardLAAWSH4.640.1411.6%+759
Lorenzo CainMILATL3.940.1411.6%+759
Gary SanchezMINOAK4.210.1411.6%+759
Trevor LarnachMINOAK4.10.1411.6%+759
Chad PinderOAKMIN4.180.1411.6%+759
Josh VanMeterPITCIN4.210.1411.6%+759
Dylan MooreSEATB3.620.1411.6%+759
Wilmer FloresSFSTL4.540.1411.6%+759
Joey BartSFSTL3.760.1411.6%+759
Nolan ArenadoSTLSF4.310.1411.6%+759
Tyler O'NeillSTLSF4.420.1411.6%+759
Yandy DiazTBSEA4.760.1411.6%+759
Christian WalkerARICOL4.240.1310.9%+816
Rougned OdorBALKC4.090.1310.9%+816
Ramon UriasBALKC3.980.1310.9%+816
Alex VerdugoBOSCHW4.180.1310.9%+816
Luis RobertCHWBOS4.440.1310.9%+816
Kyle FarmerCINPIT3.960.1310.9%+816
Jonathan SchoopDETHOU3.970.1310.9%+816
Jeremy PenaHOUDET3.860.1310.9%+816
Anthony RendonLAAWSH4.190.1310.9%+816
Michael ChavisPITCIN4.320.1310.9%+816
Jurickson ProfarSDMIA4.260.1310.9%+816
Trayce ThompsonSDMIA3.70.1310.9%+816
Ha-Seong KimSDMIA4.040.1310.9%+816
Jesse WinkerSEATB4.290.1310.9%+816
Zack CollinsTORCLE4.10.1310.9%+816
Keibert RuizWSHLAA4.150.1310.9%+816
Sergio AlcantaraARICOL3.690.1210.2%+883
Marcell OzunaATLMIL4.20.1210.2%+883
Cedric MullinsBALKC4.650.1210.2%+883
Yasmani GrandalCHWBOS4.330.1210.2%+883
Charlie BlackmonCOLARI4.60.1210.2%+883
Robbie GrossmanDETHOU4.530.1210.2%+883
Whit MerrifieldKCBAL4.380.1210.2%+883
Jacob StallingsMIASD3.770.1210.2%+883
Luis UriasMILATL3.830.1210.2%+883
Tony KempOAKMIN4.850.1210.2%+883
Jake CronenworthSDMIA4.480.1210.2%+883
Tom MurphySEATB3.840.1210.2%+883
Paul DeJongSTLSF3.870.1210.2%+883
Lourdes GurrielTORCLE4.440.1210.2%+883
David PeraltaARICOL4.360.119.4%+962
Ozzie AlbiesATLMIL4.090.119.4%+962
Anthony SantanderBALKC4.430.119.4%+962
Xander BogaertsBOSCHW4.410.119.4%+962
Christian VazquezBOSCHW3.960.119.4%+962
Franmil ReyesCLETOR40.119.4%+962
Andres GimenezCLETOR3.880.119.4%+962
Garrett CooperMIASD4.10.119.4%+962
Christian YelichMILATL4.490.119.4%+962
Omar NarvaezMILATL4.050.119.4%+962
Gio UrshelaMINOAK4.320.119.4%+962
Luis TorrensSEATB3.960.119.4%+962
Luis GonzalezSFSTL3.870.119.4%+962
Harrison BaderSTLSF4.090.119.4%+962
Dylan CarlsonSTLSF3.760.119.4%+962
Nick AhmedARICOL3.80.18.6%+1058
Dansby SwansonATLMIL3.640.18.6%+1058
Robinson ChirinosBALKC3.870.18.6%+1058
Mike MoustakasCINPIT4.30.18.6%+1058
Tucker BarnhartDETHOU3.750.18.6%+1058
Martin MaldonadoHOUDET3.750.18.6%+1058
Kolten WongMILATL4.720.18.6%+1058
Mike YastrzemskiSFSTL4.090.18.6%+1058
Paul GoldschmidtSTLSF4.530.18.6%+1058
Alejandro KirkTORCLE3.990.18.6%+1058
Travis d'ArnaudATLMIL3.980.097.8%+1174
Guillermo HerediaATLMIL3.750.097.8%+1174
Franchy CorderoBOSCHW4.070.097.8%+1174
Spencer TorkelsonDETHOU3.860.097.8%+1174
Michael BrantleyHOUDET4.530.097.8%+1174
Brandon MarshLAAWSH4.530.097.8%+1174
Ke'Bryan HayesPITCIN4.540.097.8%+1174
Jack SuwinskiPITCIN4.10.097.8%+1174
Trent GrishamSDMIA4.590.097.8%+1174
Yadiel HernandezWSHLAA4.380.097.8%+1174
Jarren DuranBOSCHW3.850.087.0%+1320
Ronnie DawsonCINPIT3.850.087.0%+1320
Owen MillerCLETOR4.220.087.0%+1320
Eric HosmerSDMIA4.150.087.0%+1320
Abraham ToroSEATB4.510.087.0%+1320
Kevin PadloSFSTL3.980.087.0%+1320
Manuel MargotTBSEA4.320.087.0%+1320
Maikel FrancoWSHLAA4.260.087.0%+1320
Pavin SmithARICOL4.470.076.2%+1507
Jorge MateoBALKC3.760.076.2%+1507
Jackie BradleyBOSCHW3.740.076.2%+1507
Albert Almora Jr.CINPIT3.740.076.2%+1507
Steven KwanCLETOR4.440.076.2%+1507
Edward OlivaresKCBAL4.830.076.2%+1507
MJ MelendezKCBAL4.160.076.2%+1507
Tyler WadeLAAWSH3.860.076.2%+1507
David FletcherLAAWSH3.750.076.2%+1507
Miguel RojasMIASD3.880.076.2%+1507
Cristian PacheOAKMIN3.960.076.2%+1507
Cole TuckerPITCIN3.990.076.2%+1507
Matt BeatySDMIA3.920.076.2%+1507
Juan YepezSTLSF4.20.076.2%+1507
Kevin KiermaierTBSEA4.210.076.2%+1507
Cesar HernandezWSHLAA4.820.076.2%+1507
Nicky LopezKCBAL3.940.065.4%+1757
Joey WendleMIASD3.990.065.4%+1757
Julio RodriguezSEATB3.730.065.4%+1757
Thairo EstradaSFSTL4.20.065.4%+1757
Yadier MolinaSTLSF3.980.065.4%+1757
Josh HarrisonCHWBOS3.880.054.5%+2108
Leury GarciaCHWBOS40.054.5%+2108
Myles StrawCLETOR4.550.054.5%+2108
Jose IglesiasCOLARI3.820.054.5%+2108
Bobby Witt Jr.KCBAL4.270.054.5%+2108
Jose MirandaMINOAK3.990.054.5%+2108
Elvis AndrusOAKMIN4.070.054.5%+2108
Tommy EdmanSTLSF4.640.054.5%+2108
Victor RoblesWSHLAA4.040.054.5%+2108
Nick GordonMINOAK3.760.043.7%+2634
Austin NolaSDMIA3.810.043.7%+2634
J.P. CrawfordSEATB4.070.043.7%+2634
Taylor WallsTBSEA4.090.043.7%+2634
Raimel TapiaTORCLE4.320.043.7%+2634
Santiago EspinalTORCLE3.880.043.7%+2634
Alcides EscobarWSHLAA3.930.043.7%+2634
Amed RosarioCLETOR3.770.032.8%+3510
Royce LewisMINOAK3.870.032.8%+3510