numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 8.5 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Imagine this -- we have two starting pitchers scheduled.
It's expected to be Luis Garcia for the Houston Astros and Max Fried for the Atlanta Braves. While that does give us more of a sense of normalcy after some bullpen-heavy games in Atlanta, both starters figure to be on a very short leash in a crucial Game 6, especially Garcia, who is on short rest. But there are reasons to like both pitchers tonight.
Garcia was a revelation as a rookie in the regular season, posting a 3.91 SIERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate. Walks have been a big issue for him in the playoffs, though, as he's sporting an ugly 17.7% walk rate this postseason, but that's probably small-sample noise. In the regular season, Garcia had a mere 7.9% walk rate.
He was also much, much better in Houston, limiting hitters to a .264 wOBA with a 28.8% strikeout rate at home, compared to a .324 wOBA and 24.1% strikeout rate in his travels.
Another smaller factor working in Garcia's favor -- and the under's favor -- is that the shift back to Houston means Yordan Alvarez can go back to playing DH, which boosts the Astros' outfield defense.
As for Fried, he's coming off consecutive rough outings. In his final start of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the lefty was tagged for five runs in 4 2/3 innings, and then he permitted six runs in five frames against Houston in Game 2.
But let's not forget how lights out Fried was in the second half, spinning a crazy-low 1.74 ERA (3.08 xFIP) with a 24.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate while holding hitters to a .229 wOBA. And his metrics still look really good for the playoffs, including a 2.95 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. While it's a tough matchup for him, he can succeed in this spot.
Our model sees runs being at a premium in Game 6 as we project this to be a 3.97-3.94 win for Atlanta. With Atlanta at +110 on the moneyline, you could opt to take the Braves to win, but our top bet of the night is the under, which we project to hit 55.7% of the time and rate as a two-star wager.