numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Phillies -1.5 (-115): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Feltner has thrown just 6 1/3 MLB innings in his career, and this will be his 2022 debut after he opened the season with 20 1/3 frames in Triple-A. Feltner's minor-league numbers are decent enough, but in 72 2/3 innings in Double-A in 2021, he allowed a 41.5% fly-ball rate while amassing just an 11.5% swinging-strike rate.
Facing a pretty stout Phillies lineup in Citizens Bank Park is a tall task for Feltner. And once he's out of the game, he'll turn over the keys to a Colorado 'pen that owns the second-worst bullpen strikeout rate (19.6%) and the second-worst SIERA (3.89).
Suarez, on the other hand, spun a 3.51 SIERA last year across 106 innings, racking up an impressive 25.6% strikeout rate in the process. While he's off to a slow start this campaign, Suarez can thrive against a Rockies offense that has plated three or fewer runs in four of their last five road games.
We project the Phillies to win by a score of 5.48-3.72. The Phillies are at -230 on the moneyline, which mostly falls in line with our model's -239 moneyline, so the better bang for your buck is on Philadelphia to cover as 1.5-run favorites. We think the Phillies cover the runline 53.9% of the time.
Braves Moneyline (-205): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Braves -1.5 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This is another matchup in which one side -- this time it's the Atlanta Braves -- has a huge advantage on the bump. Charlie Morton is going for Atlanta, and Mark Leiter Jr. gets the ball for the Chicago Cubs.
Morton is off to a bumpy start, but he has a long track record of success. He finished 2021 with a 3.57 SIERA, and he hasn't had a SIERA north of 4.00 since 2012. He's good, and his slow start likely has a lot to do with back-to-back tough matchups versus the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. He has a much softer matchup in this one against a Chicago offense that projects to be a league-average unit the rest of the way, per FanGraphs.
Leiter will have his work cut out for him versus the Braves, an offense that the aforementioned rest-of-season projections peg as the second-best. Leiter has shown nothing in his career to make us think he can mow through the Braves. Over 121 1/3 career innings, the righty sports a 20.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% swinging-strike rate while permitting 2.00 homers per nine.
The Braves are big favorites, listed at -200 on the moneyline, but we think the moneyline should be -298 as we give Atlanta win odds of 74.9%. Taking Atlanta on the moneyline rates as a three-star play. You can also opt to take the Braves on the runline. We have them covering 58.5% of the time and assign that bet a two-star rating.