numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Oakland Moneyline (-134): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland -1.5 (-164): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.0 (-108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees this game playing out differently than oddsmakers do, and we pick out some value in a few spots.
While Jeffries has struggled in a small sample of 26 1/3 MLB frames, he's got a good minor-league track record. Back in 2019, he recorded a 27.5% strikeout rate and 2.7% walk rate in Double-A. Although he has dealt with injuries since then, he's allowed just a 29.0% hard-hit rate in the bigs. He'll also be backed by an Oakland Athletics offense that has a .292 wOBA -- not good but still better than the Baltimore Orioles' .278 mark
Lyles has been a bad pitcher for a while. Since the start of 2020, he's amassed a 4.93 SIERA with a 17.4% strikeout rate. He's permitted 1.85 jacks per nine in that time. Nothing has been different through his first 10 1/3 innings this year as he's been tagged for six earned runs while walking five and punching out six.
All in all, we have this being a 5.13-3.76 victory for the Athletics. We project Oakland to win 66.8% of the time. The -134 moneyline price implies win odds of only 57.3%. That creates value in taking the A's to win, and we rate it as a three-star wager.
We also like the over as well as Oakland on the runline, both of which we assign two-star ratings.
Do note that rain could be an issue, although, as of early Wednesday, it's not expected to be too heavy.
Over 9.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Jays came into the year projected to be one of the game's elite offenses, and they currently sit second in homers (15) and boast a 1-2-3 atop the lineup that features George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Whew.
Toronto's offense should do some damage against Nick Pivetta. The Boston right-hander has always been able to generate a good amount of whiffs in his career, recording a 26.0% strikeout rate since the start of 2020 (162 2/3 innings). But walks and dingers have been an ongoing problem. In that same split (start of 2020), Pivetta owns a 10.1% walk rate and has given up 1.49 homers per nine.
Toronto is turning to its ace, Jose Berrios, who has stunk so far this year. While small-sample caveats obviously apply, Berrios has surrendered seven earned runs and a trio of taters in 5 1/3 innings. Those 5 1/3 innings actually cover two starts. It's been bad. Coming off a 3.65 SIERA in 2021, Berrios will surely settle down at some point, but he's got a tall task in front of him today versus a Boston offense that FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections rank fifth-best.
Our numbers have the Jays winning by a score of 5.69-4.96. That's 10.65 runs, and we give the over a 57.7% chance to hit.