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Over 9.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
We've got a full day of baseball on Wednesday, and this is one of the first games of the day, with start time set for 12:35 p.m. EST.
I want to get this out of the way first -- weather could be an issue here. But if this game plays, we project a whole bunch of runs to be scored.
Lodolo is making his MLB debut, and he's pitched only 6 2/3 frames above Double-A. The Guardians have scored 10, 10, and 17 runs across their past three games, so they should present quite the challenge for the rookie -- especially at homer-happy Great American Ball Park. While Lodolo's Double-A strikeout numbers are really good (39.3% strikeout rate), our model projects Cleveland to score 5.48 runs.
McKenzie is a good hurler who sports a 28.2% strikeout rate in 156 1/3 career innings. He has a homer issue, though, allowing 1.55 per nine for his career. He gave up a 57.1% fly-ball rate a year ago, and even though the Cincy lineup isn't anything special, surrendering a lot of fly-balls at Great American Ball Park is a recipe for disaster. We have the Reds plating 5.38 runs.
In all, we're projecting there to be 10.86 runs -- nearly two runs over the 9.0-run line. We have the over hitting 59.6% of the time and rate it as a four-star play. It's our top bet of the day.
Over 9.0 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Another game. Another over.
Kelly posted a 4.43 SIERA last year with a lowly 19.5% strikeout rate. He particularly struggled against righties, permitting a .356 wOBA and 1.58 jacks per nine in the split. Going up against a Houston lineup that doesn't whiff much and boasts righty sticks like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, Kelly should be in a world of hurt.
Our algorithm forecasts the Astros to score 5.78 runs.
That means we don't need too much from the Arizona Diamondbacks' offense to get us to the over. That's good because they might not do a whole lot versus Framber Valdez, a ground-ball maestro. Still, we project the D-Backs to get 4.32 runs across.
That's 10.1 runs in all, and we have the over winning out 52.8% of the time.