numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Red Sox Moneyline (+112): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Whitlock made 46 relief appearances for Boston in 2021 and has transitioned to the rotation for this campaign. It's gone extremely well. The right-hander owns a 35.8% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate, and 16.3% swinging-strike rate through his initial 21 2/3 frames of the season. With a sparkling 1.8 SIERA, Whitlock is looking like a potential ace-level arm, and the lone knock on him is that he's still not built up to a normal starting workload, topping out at 78 pitches, which is his lone appearance with more than 61 pitches.
Wright is a former number-five overall MLB Draft pick who was struggling in the bigs prior to this year. His average fastball velocity is up 1.7 MPH, and the Bravers' hurler sports a 2.48 SIERA, 30.6% strikeout rate, 12.9% swinging-strike rate, and 5.8% walk rate. He's been great overall, but his single-game swinging-strike rates have fallen dramatically in the past two games (6.2% and 10.3%). Wright has also faced the meh offenses of the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, and Miami Marlins in three of his five starts.
These are two good pitchers and a pair of quality teams, but our model leans toward Boston. We give the underdog Sox a 51.2% chance to win outright and have them winning by a score of 4.89-4.57. We mark Boston on the moneyline as a one-star wager.
Rays Moneyline (-116): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Rays -1.5 (+155): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Kluber was pretty solid last season for the New York Yankees (4.37 SIERA), and he's upped his game so far in 2022, pitching his way to a 3.32 SIERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, and 12.7% swinging-strike rate across 26 2/3 innings. On the flip side, the Angels' offense is one of the game's best, and Kluber has failed to top 90 pitches this year. But the workload isn't a huge concern with Tampa Bay's relievers posting a better-than-average SIERA (3.35).
Detmers struggled in a brief call-up last year, and he's put up very similar numbers so far this season. In 42 2/3 career innings, he's got a 4.67 SIERA and 19.3% strikeout rate, and he's been tagged for 1.69 homers per nine.
Our numbers forecast the Rays to win by a score of 5.42-3.96. We think Tampa comes out on top 63.3% of the time. The -116 moneyline price implies win odds of only 53.7%, so there's good value on the Rays to win outright, which we assign a three-star rating. We also like Tampa Bay on the runline. We project them to cover at a 52.2% clip, and they can be had at a +115 runline price.