numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-114): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
With the way Joe Musgrove is pitching right now, it doesn't feel good to back the over in a game in which he's starting, but that's the direction our model leans today -- and it's a heavy lean.
Musgrove has been lights out, posting a 30.4% strikeout rate and 1.4% walk rate en route to a sparkling 2.01 SIERA over his first 19 innings of the season. He faced the Cincinnati Reds last time out and held them to two earned runs across 6 1/3 frames while punching out seven.
While Musgrove should do well tonight, our model projects the Reds' offense to put up a fight, forecasting Cincy to score 4.48 runs. On paper, it's hard to see the Reds doing too much against Musgrove, but Great American Ball Park will provide a boost to the bats of both squads. And, really, we should get a lot of production out of the San Diego Padres' lineup.
San Diego is taking on lefty Reiver Sanmartin. After thriving in the minors in 2021 and looking good in a cup of coffee in the bigs, Sanmartin locked down a rotation spot coming out of spring training this year. It hasn't gone well. His strikeout rate (14.5%) and walk rate (10.9%) are eyesores thus far in 2022, and he permitted five earned runs in 5 1/3 last time out against these same Padres.
After Sanmartin, San Diego gets to face a Cincy 'pen that owns the second-worst reliever SIERA (3.91). All of that leads to our algorithm projecting the Padres to score 5.56 runs.
We have a total of 10.04 runs being scored in this game, so even if you think we're a little too high on the Reds' offense against Musgrove, there is wiggle room for you to be right about that and the over to still cash. We give the over a 70.4% chance to win out and mark it as a four-star bet. It's our top-rated bet of the day.
Houston Moneyline (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Houston -1.5 (+138): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Hearn, a lefty, has been both a starter and reliever with Texas. He's starting full-time this year and hasn't gone more than four innings in any of his three appearances. Houston's offense will get plenty of time to go to work against a Texas bullpen that sports the fifth-worst reliever SIERA (3.62). And they'll have a good chance to punish Hearn, too, as he's permitted a 41.2% fly-ball rate and 1.42 dingers per nine in 132 2/3 career innings.
Odorizzi isn't good, but his matchup isn't as tough as Hearn's. While Houston's offense sits 9th in FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections, the Rangers' offense ranks 15th, and despite some big-money signings this offseason, Texas is only 20th in wOBA (.293) in the early going.
In all, we have Houston winning by a score of 5.75-4.30. We give the Astros win odds of 63.2% -- much higher than the 51.9% implied odds from the -108 moneyline. We also have Houston covering as 1.5-run favorites 52.0% of the time. We rate Houston on the moneyline and runline as three and two-star wagers, respectively.