numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.5 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model really likes the over in this game.
Martinez's return to the bigs hasn't gone well thus far. In 14 2/3 innings, he's got a 5.04 SIERA and 14.9% walk rate while punching out just 19.4% of hitters. He's also allowing a 41.9% fly-ball rate. While the Reds' offense isn't good, they'll get a boost from Great American Ball Park and should be able to do some damage against Martinez.
As for Mahle, he's a quality pitcher and has been for a few years, but he isn't the same at home. Over his career, he allows a .349 wOBA and 36.7% hard-hit rate at home, compared to a .304 wOBA and 31.1% hard-hit rate on the road.
We project both offenses to do well today and have Cincy winning by a score of 5.06-4.93. That's 9.99 total runs, and we give the over a 62.6% chance to cash.
Cleveland Moneyline (+144): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Cleveland +1.5 (-142): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Cal Quantrill is pitching for Cleveland. Quantrill has been meh so far this year and has been roughly an average hurler in his career. He does, however, own a great batted-ball profile. He permitted a 27.8% hard-hit rate last year, which helped him limit homers to just 0.96 per nine.
Reid Detmers is taking the hill for LA, and while Detmers has a great minor-league track record, things haven't gone well for him in The Show. He's got a lowly 8.1% swinging-strike rate across his first 12 1/3 frames of 2022, and he's allowing 1.46 dingers per nine. Homers are a problem that has carried over from his cup of coffee last year, and he's now given up 1.91 jacks per nine over his 33 career MLB innings.
We project Cleveland to win outright 57.8% of the time and have the final score being 5.08-4.14. That creates a lot of value on the Guardians. Taking them to win outright is a three-star bet, per our numbers, and betting on Cleveland to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs -- something we think they'll do 74.2% of the time -- is a four-star wager.