numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.0 (-108): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
There's a lot to like about Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan, especially against a meh Kansas City Royals offense, so betting on the over in this game is mostly a bet against Zack Greinke and the Twins' bullpen.
Greinke is working some kind of magic to have a 2.45 ERA in his 11 innings this season, because his underlying metrics are horrible. He's struck out just one batter -- yes, one. His swinging-strike rate is 4.1%.
He's not going to be this bad all year, but it doesn't look like Greinke will be able to improve on last season's 4.54 SIERA and 17.2% strikeout rate. He gave up 1.58 jacks per nine last year, and while he hasn't been tagged for a dinger yet this campaign, they are coming -- likely in bunches -- if he keeps allowing this much contact.
Like I said at the jump, Ryan is good and should be able to have his way with a KC lineup that isn't that formidable. He has, however, been allowed to go just 70 and 82 pitches in two outings, so the Twins' bullpen will likely shoulder a big workload today -- and that's when the Royals' offense will have an edge. So far in 2022, the Twins' bullpen owns the ninth-worst reliever SIERA (3.67) with the third-highest walk rate (11.9%).
We project Minnesota to plate 5.30 runs and KC to push across 4.66 runs. That's 9.96 total runs, and we think the over cashes 62.4% of the time.
Nationals Moneyline (-130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 9.0 (-108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Davies has pretty much always been the same guy -- a low-strikeout pitcher who survives by not giving up a ton of hard contact. He's made that profile work most of his career. But the wheels started coming off last season, when he posted a 5.36 SIERA and walked a career-worst 11.2% of hitters, and he's off to a putrid start this year, walking and striking out the same number of batters (four) through his first 9 1/3 innings. He's permitted 1.54 homers per nine since the start of 2020.
Once Davies is out, things won't get too much better for the Snakes. Arizona's bullpen SIERA of 4.37 is the worst mark in the game in the early going of 2022, and their relievers are striking out just 16.9% of hitters, another MLB-worst clip -- 2.2 percentage points lower than any other bullpen's strikeout rate.
Washington starter Josh Rogers has gobs of warts in his profile, as well. He's got a 5.94 SIERA and 12.0% strikeout rate over 71 1/3 innings while giving up 2.02 homers per nine. Yuck.
While neither offense is very good, hitters will have the upper hand today, and the Nats have the better offense of the two, according to FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections -- which peg Washington's offense 13th-best and Arizona's 5th-worst.
We give Washington a 62.4% chance to win while the -130 moneyline price implies win odds of just 52.5%, making a bet on the Nats to win a two-star play. Our numbers also point to the over being a two-star bet as we think it hits 53.5% of the time.