MLB Betting Guide: Opening Day

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Over 7.0 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5

While it's not fun to back the over for a game in which Corbin Burnes is starting, this is mostly about the Milwaukee Brewers' offense doing damage against Kyle Hendricks.

Hendricks had the worst campaign of his career across the board last season. His 4.70 SIERA, 16.7% strikeout rate and 1.54 dingers per nine were all career-worst marks. He ended the year on a rough note, permitting 31 earned runs over his last 36 1/3 innings. He also struggled mightily at Wrigley, pitching to a 5.24 ERA while surrendering 1.85 homers per nine and a .354 wOBA in the split.

If you still need more urging, the wind is forecasted to be blowing out to right at 15 MPH on Thursday.

Our projections have Milwaukee plating 5.03 runs, so we don't need too much from the Chicago Cubs' offense to get to the over. That's good, because they'll likely be overmatched by Burnes. But with that said, we project the Cubbies to score 3.53 runs.

That's 8.56 runs in all, and we have the over hitting 58.4% of the time. It's the top-rated bet of Opening Day by our numbers.

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Moneyline (-112): 2-Star Rating out of 5

Going by FanGraphs' projected win totals, not much separates these AL Central rivals this season, but the Cleveland Guardians have a huge advantage on the mound in the opener as the pitching matchup pits Shane Bieber against Zack Greinke.

Bieber has been one of the elite pitchers in baseball the past few seasons and is reportedly fully recovered from the shoulder injury that sidelined him for a huge chunk of 2021. Over 174 innings since the start of 2020, Bieber owns a 2.90 SIERA, 36.5% strikeout rate, 16.6% swinging-strike rate, and a 7.7% walk rate.

The dude has been fantastic, and he should be able to handle a Kansas City Royals lineup that FanGraphs projects as the sixth-worst offense this season.

In 2021, Greinke appeared to be heading toward the end of his superb career. He finished with a career-worst 4.54 SIERA and a 17.2% strikeout rate, the latter of which was his lowest clip since his first two seasons (2004 and 2005). He gave up 1.58 jacks per nine, the most since his rookie year.

Cleveland's offense isn't too potent, but they should make some noise against Greinke.

Our algorithm has Cleveland winning by a score of 5.41-4.08, and we think the Guardians should be a bigger favorite than what they are. The -112 moneyline implies win odds of 52.8%, but we project Cleveland to win 62.0% of the time.