numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-104): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Both Paddack and Wells are no strangers to the long ball, and with this game in Camden Yards, we should see a couple homers tonight.
For his career, Wells has been good overall in 70 MLB frames, but the big blemish on his profile is that he's surrendered 1.54 jacks per nine, including 2.08 per nine in the early going of this season. At home in his career, Wells has permitted 2.17 dingers per nine. Wells has also seen his average fastball velocity drop by one MPH this season and is punching out just 17.4% of hitters thus far.
Paddack was once a promising young pitcher who is off to a good start with the Minnesota Twins, but he's been tagged for 1.45 homers per nine in his career. He's also been limited to 73 or fewer pitches in two of his three 2022 starts, so we should see a good amount of Minnesota's bullpen.
We project the Twins to win by a score of 5.07-4.47 -- a total of 9.54 runs, which is more than two runs over the line. We think the over wins out 66.6% of the time and rate it as a three-star bet.
Braves Moneyline (-102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
These NL East rivals open their series today in what is expected to be a close, low-scoring affair. Our projections see value in the underdog Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta is giving the ball to Max Fried, who has been lights out so far this year. In 24.0 innings, he's spun a 2.63 SIERA while sporting his usual excellent batted-ball profile -- 55.1% ground-ball rate and 24.3% hard-hit rate. Fried isn't a high-strikeout hurler, but he's proven over time to be able to thrive despite that.
Once Fried is out of the game, he will turn it over to an Atlanta 'pen that holds the fifth-best reliever xFIP (3.45).
The New York Mets are turning to Chris Bassitt. After breakout year in 2021, Bassitt has upped his numbers pretty much across the board in a small sample of 24 innings this season. There's a reason this game has a 6.5-run total. But Bassitt has feasted on some meh lineups thus far -- Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants for his first three starts -- and will have his work cut out for him against a Braves offense that FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections peg as the second-best.
We have this game as a coin-flip, giving the Braves an ever-so-slight edge with win odds of 50.1%. With Atlanta -102 to win and the Mets at -116 on the moneyline, there's a sliver of value in taking Atlanta to win. We mark it as a one-star play.