MLB Betting Guide: Monday 10/18/21

Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Over 9.0 Runs (-118): 2 Stars out of 5
Boston moneyline (-118): 1 Star out of 5

The Houston Astros were the best offensive team in MLB this season, finishing the year with 5.33 runs per game compared to 5.12 runs per game for Boston. Both offenses have had success in this series, with Houston scoring 10 runs in two games compared to 13 runs in two games for Boston.

The starting pitching matchup is fairly even in this one. Jose Urquidy has a 3.62 ERA and 3.87 xERA, while Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.74 ERA and a 3.55 xERA. The Astros are third in defensive runs saved, according to fielding bible at +76, which could help explain why Urquidy has a better ERA than xERA. Boston is only +4 in defensive runs saved, so Houston is more equipped to help out their pitching with good defense.

Still, the pitching and offense are very evenly matched in this game. Home field advantage should give Boston a slight boost, as they are 49-32 at home compared to a 44-37 away record for Houston.

We like the Boston moneyline at -118, as we give them a 54.62% chance to win outright. Our final score prediction is Boston to win 5.20-4.98, and we give the over a 53.44% chance, making it our strongest play for the Monday night game.