numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Twins +1.5 (-150): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Twins Moneyline (+110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Toronto got the 9-3 win last night in the series opener, and they'll be starting Jose Berrios (8-4, 4.96 ERA, 5.17 expected ERA) against Tyler Mahle (5-7, 4.40 ERA, 3.20 expected ERA) in his Twins debut.
The Twins' active roster holds a 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, tied for third-best in the Majors, while the Blue Jays are no slouch either at a 113.
However, the underlying pitching data does prefer Mahle to Berrios, and the Twins' bats should be able to take advantage.
Our model views them as 68.0% likely to cover the run line (good for an expected return of 13.4%).
Over 9.0 (-115): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Royals +1.5 (-170): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Royals Moneyline (-102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
We're getting a matchup in this spot between two pitchers with poor peripherals.
Josh Winckowski (4-5, 5.00 ERA, 4.49 expected ERA) is getting the nod for the Boston Red Sox, and it's Zack Greinke (3-6, 4.41 ERA, 5.48 expected ERA) for the Kansas City Royals in a matchup between righties.
The Red Sox have a 101 wRC+ against righties this season, and the Royals are at a weaker 91 but rank ninth in the Bigs in hard-hit rate (31.5%) against righties.
That plays part in liking the over, and while the odds are -115 on the 9.0 mark, that's indicating movement without being too prohibitive.
Over 8.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
In fact, among 129 pitchers with at least 200 balls in play this season, Bumgarner's expected ERA differential is 10th-highest, meaning he's being rewarded for poor peripherals more than almost anyone else.
The Rockies boast a 99 wRC+ and a 30.2% hard-hit rate against lefties. Those league-average rates should do well enough in the promising matchup.
As for the Arizona bats, they're sixth in hard-hit rate (32.6%) despite a poor wRC+ of 86.
Our model thinks this game is 61.1% likely to go over.