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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Marlins Moneyline (+126): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Marlins +1.5 (-152): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Just like everyone expected at the start of the season (sarcasm), Trevor Rogers is struggling while Kyle Wright is dealing. But our model is backing Rogers to right the ship today as the Miami Marlins take on the Atlanta Braves.
Rogers was nothing short of outstanding last year as a rookie, pitching to a 3.72 SIERA and 28.5% strikeout rate. Given those numbers and his quality minor-league track record, Rogers was projected for big things in 2022 by most projection systems. It hasn't gone that way thus far as he's permitted nine earned runs in 6 2/3 innings.
But we're obviously dealing with small samples, and Rogers' last start -- a nightmare in which he gave up seven earned runs in 1 2/3 frames -- is crushing his overall numbers. It's safe to expect him to eventually pitch better than he has been, and once he departs tonight, he'll be replaced by a Miami 'pen that ranks 10th-best in reliever SIERA (3.42).
Wright has been dealing through two starts, and while there are some reasons to buy in (former fifth overall pick and his fastball velocity up), this is a guy who entered this campaign with a career 5.84 SIERA and walk rate (14.8%) that wasn't far off from his strikeout rate (18.2%). In short, he's been crap before 2022, and the betting market might be overreacting a tad. And Miami's offense has been serviceable in the early going, sitting 14th in wOBA (.311).
Our model likes the underdog Marlins in this one. We project them to win 4.76-4.41 and give them win odds of 51.4%. Taking Miami to win outright is a two-star bet, per our rating system, and taking them to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs is a three-star play.
Over 7.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Kopech has lights-out stuff; that's not the issue. He owns a 32.6% strikeout rate for his career. But he can have bouts of wildness, gives up his fair share of jacks (1.26 per nine for his career) and rarely goes deep into games. He's topped out at 75 pitches this season through two outings and has gotten more than 15 outs in a game only once in his career (and that was back in 2018).
Ober was a chic breakout pick this season after posting a 3.82 SIERA across 92 1/3 frames last year. But he's been tagged for 1.82 homers per nine over 103 1/3 career innings, and he's punched out only seven hitters in 11 innings so far this year. Facing a powerful Chicago offense, Ober has a tall task ahead of him, and a Minnesota bullpen that sports the ninth-highest reliever SIERA (3.61) doesn't figure to put out too many fires.
While both of these lineups have been blah so far in 2022, FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections have each offense performing much better the rest of the way, ranking the Pale Hose 8th and the Twins 11th.
We think the offenses win out in this one and project a final score of 5.09-4.01 in favor of the White Sox. That's 9.10 total runs, and we think the over cashes 63.0% of the time. It's a three-star wager.