numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Giants Moneyline (-146): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants -1.5 (+110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Carlos Rodon is a big reason why. Rodon broke out in a huge way last season, twirling a dazzling 2.96 SIERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 14.9% swinging-strike rate. Dude was dealin', and he opened 2022 by fanning 12 in five innings, so he picked up right where he left off.
The matchup is a good one for the electric southpaw. While Cleveland's offense has started well, FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections peg the Guardians to be a below-average offense the rest of the way.
Cleveland is turning to right-hander Zach Plesac, and he will have his hands full against a good San Fran lineup, one that ended 2021 with the fifth-best wOBA against righties (.332). Plesac doesn't have too much going for him. He recorded a 4.73 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate a year ago.
Our numbers have the Giants winning by a score of 5.31-3.55. That results in a two-star rating on either taking San Fran to cover or to win outright. We think they cover as 1.5-run favorites 55.3% of the time. Our projections have the Giants winning outright 66.2% of the time, which is higher than the implied odds of 59.3% from the -146 moneyline.
Over 8.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Keller dealt in his season debut, but he has a long track record of being a run-of-the-mill pitcher. Since the start of 2020, Keller owns a 4.79 SIERA and 18.9% strikeout rate. He's never had a single-season strikeout rate above 19.6% in his career.
Skubal has some swing-and-miss juice. His problem is dingers. Across 185 1/3 career innings, he's given up 2.14 homers per nine and has surrendered a 43.2% fly-ball rate.
We project Detroit to win, 4.80-4.72. That's a total of 9.52 runs, and we give the over a 58.6% chance to hit.