Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.
We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.
The Process
Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).
The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.
In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.
I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.
I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.
Here are the most likely winners for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, according to the models, as well as their FanDuel Sportsbook win odds.
Golfer FanDuel
Salary Win% Top-
10% Made
Cut% FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds Matt Fitzpatrick$11,9006.9%35.6%84.6%+1000 Christiaan
Bezuidenhout$11,7005.6%29.8%81.9%+1400 Patrick Reed$11,8005.0%28.3%80.9%+1800 Seamus Power$11,5003.2%23.5%77.6%+2200 Mito Pereira$11,6002.9%22.6%77.8%+2000 Adam Hadwin$11,0002.7%19.5%74.8%+3100 Chad Ramey$10,7002.6%20.7%76.8%+3300 Hank Lebioda$9,4002.2%17.1%72.6%+6500 Sahith Theegala$10,5002.1%17.1%73.0%+3400 Matthias Schwab$10,8002.1%18.2%74.1%+3300 Alex Smalley$9,2002.1%16.8%72.8%+6500 Stephan Jaeger$9,7002.0%17.2%72.7%+5000 Ryan Armour$9,7001.7%15.4%70.7%+5000 Danny Willett$11,3001.6%14.9%70.6%+2700 Scott Stallings$9,9001.6%14.6%70.9%+4100 Patrick Rodgers$10,3001.6%15.1%70.7%+4100 Taylor Pendrith$10,2001.5%14.7%70.2%+4100 Russell Knox$9,8001.5%14.6%70.7%+5000 Mark Hubbard$9,2001.4%14.5%70.4%+6500 Nick Taylor$8,9001.4%12.4%68.5%+7000 Lucas Herbert$9,5001.4%13.8%69.1%+5500 Nick Hardy$9,4001.4%14.1%69.8%+5500 David Lipsky$9,8001.3%13.3%68.6%+5000 Aaron Rai$9,1001.3%14.5%70.7%+6500 Bo Hoag$8,7001.3%12.5%68.1%+8000 Brian Stuard$8,7001.2%13.2%69.0%+8000 Guido Migliozzi$10,9001.2%12.4%68.1%+3300 Vincent Whaley$8,5001.2%11.9%67.4%+10000 Jason Dufner$9,0001.2%12.9%68.6%+6500 Denny McCarthy$10,1001.1%12.9%68.8%+4100 Adam Svensson$8,1001.1%12.6%68.4%+12000 Andrew Novak$7,8001.1%11.1%66.1%+15000 Joseph Bramlett$9,6001.1%13.6%68.7%+5000 Dylan Frittelli$9,9001.0%10.9%66.8%+5000 Anirban Lahiri$8,8001.0%12.0%66.6%+8000 Peter Uihlein$9,5001.0%11.2%66.3%+5500 Lee Hodges$8,4001.0%10.9%66.0%+10000 Greyson Sigg$8,5001.0%11.2%66.1%+10000 Cameron Percy$8,5000.9%10.1%64.6%+10000 Seth Reeves$8,2000.9%10.3%65.0%+10000 Garrick Higgo$10,4000.9%8.9%62.6%+4100 Thomas Detry$10,0000.9%10.9%66.2%+4100 Matthew NeSmith$9,3000.9%10.4%65.8%+6500 Hayden Buckley$11,2000.8%11.3%66.4%+2700 Austin Eckroat$8,9000.8%9.7%63.6%+7000 Kramer Hickok$8,9000.8%10.7%65.4%+8000 Max McGreevy$8,0000.8%9.1%63.0%+12000 Camilo Villegas$8,3000.7%9.3%63.3%+10000 Vaughn Taylor$7,9000.7%8.5%61.9%+15000 Kiradech
Aphibarnrat$9,3000.7%10.0%64.1%+6500 Danny Lee$7,9000.7%8.6%61.8%+15000 Davis Riley$8,6000.7%7.9%61.9%+8000 Chase Seiffert$8,0000.6%7.8%60.9%+12000 Ben Kohles$7,6000.6%8.3%62.2%+21000 Sepp Straka$8,8000.6%7.1%59.5%+8000 David Skinns$7,8000.6%7.6%59.5%+15000 Austin
Smotherman$7,7000.6%7.8%60.9%+15000 Brandon Hagy$9,0000.6%7.6%59.9%+7000 Erik Barnes$7,4000.6%6.7%59.0%+32000 Dylan Wu$8,2000.6%8.5%62.1%+12000 Beau Hossler$8,7000.6%7.2%60.2%+8000 Dawie
van der Walt$8,4000.5%8.3%63.0%+10000 Kurt Kitayama$8,4000.5%7.4%60.2%+10000 Harry Hall$9,0000.5%7.1%59.7%+6500 Justin Lower$7,9000.5%7.2%59.7%+15000 Luke Donald$8,0000.5%6.3%57.5%+12000 Callum Tarren$7,6000.5%6.4%59.2%+21000 Peter Malnati$9,1000.5%6.6%58.5%+6500
In a field lacking in big names, we don't really have any heavy, heavy favorites, and the man at the top of the betting board and simulations -- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1000) -- is a bit overvalued, according to the simulations.
The same can be said for Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+1400). My numbers have Fitz around +1400 and Bezuidenhout at around +1700.
Patrick Reed (+1800) is a pretty fair value overall and could see his odds shorten the closer we get to Thursday due to his name value relative to the rest of the field. He's my preference at the top of the field -- and the model's as well -- at the number.
Though the model is a tinge low on them, I have interest in Adam Hadwin (+3100) and Chad Ramey (+3300); both rate out well in my stats model for the week.
My sims really like Hank Lebioda (+6500) and would consider him a fair value if he were listed at +4500. He ranks fourth in datagolf's true strokes gained over the past six months among this field.
Other golfers who outperform their win odds include Alex Smalley (+6500), Stephan Jaeger (+5000), Nick Taylor (+7000), Bo Hoag (+8000), Brian Stuard (+8000), and Vincent Whaley (+10000).