Fortinet Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

The PGA Tour season is back in action already for one week before the Presidents Cup arrives, but that's one week of PGA DFS action to break down and examine.

This week, the Tour starts its new season at Silverado Resort and Spa (North) with the Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open and the Frys.com Open).

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

Silverado Resort and Spa (North) Info & Key Stats

Par: 72
Distance: 7,123 (short: ~260 yards shorter than the average par 70)
Fairway Width: 26.9 yards (6th-narrowest of 80 courses)
Average Green Size: N/A
Green Type: Poa/bentgrass
Stimpmeter: N/A
Past 5 Winning Scores: -19, -21, -17, -14, -15
Past 5 Cut Lines: -3, -5, -2, -3, -1
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Proximity from 50-125 Yards, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better,

Despite the narrow fairways, we haven't seen an over-emphasis on driving accuracy at Silverado in the past, and distance and accuracy are both a bit important. Still, gaining strokes off the tee is never a bad thing.

What'll matter more is precision with wedges, as the short distance is going to correlate well with shorter approach shots. Datagolf shows a heavy emphasis on dispersion from within 150 yards, specifically.

A good short game will help here. It's typically a difficult place to gain strokes around the green, and if we just put an emphasis on wedge play, then we're probably off to a good start.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

The best strokes gained averages for golfers at Silverado with at least two starts over the past five years:
- Harry Higgs (+1.55)
- Chez Reavie (+1.49)
- Zac Blair (+1.47)
- Kevin Streelman (+1.38)
- Doc Redman (+1.38)
- Mark Hubbard (+1.29)
- Webb Simpson (+1.27)
- Ryan Moore (+1.27)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1.26)
- Brandt Snedeker (+1.26)

Yeah, this is overall a good list of wedge players who aren't super long.

Past winners (at this course) in the field:
- Max Homa (2021)
- Stewart Cink (2020)
- Cameron Champ (2019)
- Kevin Tway (2018)
- Brendan Steele (2016 and 2017)
- Emiliano Grillo (2015)
- Jimmy Walker (2013)

Win Simulations for the Fortinet Championship

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuelSalary Win% Top-10% MadeCut% FanDuelSportsbookWinOdds
MaxHoma$11,9005.5%26.8%77.7%+1500
HidekiMatsuyama$12,0004.4%27.6%76.4%+1500
CoreyConners$11,8004.2%27.3%78.2%+1800
TaylorPendrith$11,0003.0%19.0%69.6%+2600
TaylorMontgomery$9,6002.6%19.5%70.5%+5000
DennyMcCarthy$10,6002.1%20.1%73.3%+4000
MaverickMcNealy$11,4002.0%15.3%68.0%+2200
DavisRiley$11,3002.0%15.7%67.7%+2900
CameronDavis$11,0002.0%15.3%67.7%+2900
TomHoge$10,5001.9%17.0%69.5%+4000
BrendanSteele$10,7001.7%12.7%63.9%+3700
GaryWoodland$10,8001.6%13.4%66.1%+4000
SahithTheegala$11,5001.6%13.1%61.7%+2400
JasonDay$10,1001.5%12.0%61.9%+5000
ChrisKirk$9,9001.5%14.4%67.4%+5000
MattKuchar$9,3001.5%17.8%69.8%+6500
EmilianoGrillo$10,4001.5%10.6%59.9%+4000
AlexNoren$9,8001.4%14.8%67.9%+5000
J.J.Spaun$9,5001.4%13.1%62.3%+6500
WyndhamClark$10,3001.3%10.4%61.6%+4200
TroyMerritt$9,5001.3%13.5%65.9%+6000
AndrewPutnam$9,7001.2%12.7%65.0%+5000
JustinSuh$9,8001.1%10.6%62.2%+5000
NickHardy$9,0001.1%9.3%55.6%+6500
PatrickRodgers$8,4001.1%9.8%60.7%+7000
YechunCarlYuan$9,0001.1%10.5%59.0%+10000
AdamLong$9,0001.0%11.5%63.3%+6500
LukeList$8,2001.0%8.9%60.8%+8500
MartinLaird$9,2001.0%10.6%62.2%+6500
AlexSmalley$8,6001.0%10.6%61.7%+10000
MarkHubbard$8,9000.9%9.5%60.6%+9500
BeauHossler$8,1000.9%7.7%54.6%+12000
TaylorMoore$9,6000.9%8.8%57.4%+5000
TylerDuncan$8,6000.9%8.6%54.8%+10000
TreyMullinax$10,2000.9%8.3%56.7%+4200
AdamSvensson$8,7000.8%8.5%55.2%+9500
StephanJaeger$8,8000.8%7.8%54.2%+9500
DavidLipsky$8,8000.8%9.3%59.4%+9500
MatthewNeSmith$8,5000.8%9.1%58.9%+11000
MJDaffue$7,3000.8%8.9%54.5%+17000
KevinStreelman$10,0000.8%8.4%57.7%+5000
ChezReavie$9,9000.7%7.3%53.3%+5000
CallumTarren$8,9000.7%7.7%54.1%+8000
WebbSimpson$10,9000.7%8.4%58.4%+4200
JohnHuh$8,7000.7%7.4%52.9%+9500
C.T.Pan$8,5000.7%7.9%53.6%+11000
LeeHodges$8,2000.7%8.4%54.0%+11000
RussellKnox$8,4000.7%9.4%59.5%+11000
BrendonTodd$9,4000.7%10.5%61.2%+6500
SamRyder$7,3000.7%6.8%52.7%+17000
StewartCink$9,4000.7%6.3%51.0%+6500
ChrisGotterup$9,2000.6%6.7%53.9%+8000
ThomasDetry$9,7000.6%7.6%57.0%+5000
MackenzieHughes$9,1000.6%7.3%55.1%+8000
BrandonWu$8,2000.6%7.3%51.6%+11000
MichaelGligic$8,8000.6%5.4%51.7%+9500
HaydenBuckley$7,7000.6%6.4%50.1%+14000
CameronChamp$9,3000.6%5.7%51.5%+5000
DylanFrittelli$8,6000.6%7.1%55.7%+10000
MichaelThompson$7,7000.6%6.5%51.1%+14000
JamesHahn$8,0000.6%6.3%50.2%+12000
MichaelKim$8,0000.6%6.5%54.5%+12000
AdamSchenk$7,8000.5%6.1%50.3%+14000
ZechengDou$8,1000.5%6.3%49.6%+12000
LucasGlover$8,4000.5%6.1%52.9%+11000
ScottPiercy$7,6000.5%6.4%50.9%+16000
DougGhim$8,5000.5%6.0%51.6%+11000
RobertStreb$7,0000.5%6.3%50.4%+25000
DannyLee$7,2000.5%5.9%50.0%+21000
GreysonSigg$7,9000.5%5.6%52.3%+12000
VincentWhaley$7,8000.5%6.0%53.6%+19000
RyanArmour$7,9000.5%6.7%51.6%+12000
RobbyShelton IV$8,0000.5%5.6%50.3%+12000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Fortinet Championship

The model does view Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Corey Conners as the three favorites -- same as the betting odds -- but doesn't show quite enough value to suggest them. Of course, that's not to say that I'm not tempted at Homa at +1500 anyway.

The primary value of the week is Taylor Montgomery at +5000. The model has him pegged at +3700. Montgomery has good long-term data that the model leverages, so that checks out. Fellow Taylor Taylor Pendrith (+2600) is on the radar as well.

If Luke List (+8500) can putt at all, he has a path to win here with his elite tee-to-green ability and is someone I'd eye as a long-shot.

It's honestly tight from there in terms of value, but the model points to Carl Yuan and Alex Smalley at +10000 as potential long-shot plays. I don't mind that but would want to consider top-10 or top-20s there in a large, volatile field.

My card will start with Homa, Montgomery, and List as far as outrights go.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Fortinet Championship

All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Max Homa (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf betting odds: +1500) - Last year's winner, Max Homa also enters this week with the best adjusted strokes average in my database while also holding 90th-percentile adjusted irons and 99th-percentile adjusted putting. There's really no way around it that he's the best play in the field this week and is worth the elevated salary as the field itself drops off fairly quickly.

Hideki Matsuyama ($12,000 | +1500) - Hideki Matsuyama is still on the PGA Tour to start the 2022 season, and that's definitely got him in a position to win this week. He's got 98th-percentile wedge play and ranked inside the top 45 in proximity from within 125 yards last season. It's a promising setup for Matsuyama, who finished sixth here last year. With value from the up-and-coming Korn Ferry guys, we can go top-heavy this week.

Others to Consider:
Corey Conners ($11,800 | +1800) - Has a case to be in the tier with Homa and Hideki; everything drops off from here.
Taylor Pendrith ($11,000 | +3000) - Is a 98th-percentile ball-striker in the field based on PGA Tour data.
Tom Hoge ($10,500 | +4000) - 93rd-percentile tee-to-green numbers with good spike weeks T2G.

Mid-Range Picks

Taylor Montgomery ($9,600 | +5000) - By a solid margin, Montgomery is the best long-term golfer in the $9,000 to $10,000 range. My database, weighted for recency and field strength, has Montgomery at +0.84 strokes gained over the past year. Next up is Matt Kuchar at +0.78 and Alexander Noren at +0.68. He enters with four straight top-10s to end his Korn Ferry Tour season.

Justin Suh ($9,800 | +5000) - A name we'll need to get used to, Suh won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship and ended the season with five top-10s in six starts. Suh ranked fifth on the Korn Ferry Tour in greens in regulation in the 2022 season.

Others to Consider:
Chris Kirk ($9,900 | +5000) - If not for a top-heavy build this week, he would be a core play: 96th-percentile T2G.
Chris Gotterup($9,200 | +8000) - A ball-striker's ball-striker: 92nd-percentile in this field off-the-tee and 96th-percentile in approach but poor recent form.
Martin Laird ($9,200 | +6500) - Has a 94th-percentile T2G game but a bad putter; that's usually a fine recipe here.

Low-Salaried Picks

Adam Long ($9,000 | +6500) - Long checks the boxes as a good, balanced ball-striker. He has 68th-percentile play off the tee and 74th-percentile play with the irons. He's also got good putting (88th-percentile) supported by elite putting from within 15 feet (98th-percentile).

Luke List ($8,200 | +8500) - This salary is super low for List, and it's really not that egregious. He has 3rd-percentile putting, and that constantly derails his rounds. That said, he's the second-best adjusted ball-striker in the field, and that has to count for something in a field full of unproven names. He was bet down from +12000 to +8500.

Others to Consider:
Carl Yuan ($9,000 | +10000) - Two top-five results to end Korn Ferry Tour season; eighth in green in regulation last season on KFT.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,500 | +11000) - 90th-percentile tee-to-green numbers and iron play; that's appealing at $8,500.
Seonghyeon Kim ($7,700 | +14000) - Just 92nd in greens in regulation on KFT last season but drove it 312.3 on average and is a great putter.
Augusto Nunez ($7,000 | +21000) - Ended the KFT season with three of four missed cuts but long-term form is world-average; a value.