NFL favorites are coming off their best week of the season, going 10-5 ATS in Week 13. However, dogs still hold the edge overall with a 105-86 ATS (55%) record. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 69-45 ATS (61%) and divisional dogs are 36-23 ATS (61%). Meanwhile, unders are 109-85 (56%) this season, led by divisional unders 36-22 (62%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine where smart money is leaning for NFL Week 14...
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53)
The Vikings (10-2) have won two straight games and just beat the Jets 27-22, covering as 3-point home favorites. On the flop side, the Lions have won four of their last five games and just beat crushed the Jaguars 40-14, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover by the Vikings due to their far superior won-loss record. However, despite Minnesota receiving 73% of bets, we've seen this line completely flip to Lions -2.5. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on the Lions, with pros hammering Detroit at home. This line movement is almost a carbon copy of the "dog to favorite" line movement on the Raiders against the Chargers last week. Dan Campbell is 8-4 ATS this season and 19-10 ATS (67%) in his career as the Lions' head coach.