Through twelve weeks of NFL weeks, underdogs and unders have remained a smart bet. Dogs are 100-76 ATS (57%), led by "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more an impressive 66-39 ATS (63%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 102-78 (57%). Unders that fall at least a half point are 56-37 (60%) and divisional unders are 33-20 (62%).
With these trends in mind, let's discuss five NFL Week 13 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors...
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 43) at Atlanta Falcons
The Steelers (4-7) have won two of their last three games and just upset the Colts 24-17, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (5-7) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Commanders 19-13, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen the Steelers flip from +1.5 to -1. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on the Steelers, who are only receiving 50% of bets but 65% of money, a notable wiseguy bet discrepancy. We've also seen some respected money hit the over, raising the total from 42 to 43. The over is receiving 52% of bets but 70% of money, signaling sharp money leaning on a higher scoring game.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 51.5) at Detroit Lions
The Jaguars (4-7) have won two of their last three games and just shocked the Ravens 28-27, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (4-7) just saw their three game win streak snapped, losing to the Bills 28-25 but covering as 9.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is all over the Lions after their impressive performance covering against the Bills on Thanksgiving. However, despite receiving 71% of bets the Lions have moved from a 2-point favorite to a 1.5-point dog. In other words, smart money has pushed the Jags from a dog to a favorite. The Jags are only receiving 29% of bets but 50% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. We could also be looking at a shootout here, as the total has been steamed up from 50 to 51.5. The over is receiving 63% of bets but 83% of money. Detroit is 7-4 to the over this season, including 4-2 to the over at home. Jacksonville is 6-5 to the under but 4-1 to the over on the road.
Washington Commanders (-2.5, 40.5) at New York Giants
The Commanders (7-5) are 6-1 over their last seven games and just edged the Falcons 19-14, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Giants (7-4) have lost three of their last four and just fell to the Cowboys 28-20 but covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with Washington listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is grabbing the points with the Giants at home. However, despite receiving only 40% of bets the Commanders have moved from -1 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Washington, with pros fading the trendy dog Giants. Taylor Heinicke is 5-0-1 ATS this season. We've also seen pros lean under, dropping the total from 42 to 40.5. Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 19-8 (70%) this season. The Commanders are 8-4 to the under and the Giants are 7-4 to the under.