As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday.
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This slate revolves around Manchester City. In a title chase, City have it all to play for, and they should slaughter Watford, a side that is likely heading back to the Championship after this campaign. At Vicarage Road in the reverse fixture, Man City racked up an eye-popping 3.6 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, and we'll likely see something similar on Saturday.
In a cozy home matchup and with Champions League coming up midweek, City could opt to sit some key players, but that won't help us too much in the value department as all their players are salaried up. Any of the front five forwards/midfielders in City's starting XI have to be on our radar no matter who they are. Kevin De Bruyne ($22) and Riyad Mahrez ($20) are the best options of the bunch if they start. KDB is tied for the team lead in goals in EPL play with 11 in addition to everything he does as a playmaker. Guys like Raheem Sterling ($19), Gabriel Jesus ($17), Phil Foden ($18), Bernardo Silva ($18) and Jack Grealish ($17) are all viable if they're in the lineup.
Everyone is going to stack City, and you should, too. So even if your City players hit, what you do in your other attacking spots -- which might be just one or two places depending on how many City attackers you plug in -- is likely to be the determining factor in how your lineups fare.
It'll be interesting to see how high of a draft percentage Harry Kane ($20) and Son Hueng-min ($21) garner for Spurs' clash at Brentford. You can find reasons to be high on Spurs' stars (motivated by a heated top-four race and have had some huge outings recently), and you can find reasons to fade them (need the salary for City, Spurs have mixed in some dreadful showings and the Bees are in good form). Ultimately, it's hard to envision Kane being that overlooked, but I think Son might be. He's scored a team-best 17 goals in league play (without a single penalty) and has poured in 6 goals across Tottenham's last four outings.
Newcastle are rolling, and they draw a nice matchup at Norwich. The Canaries have permitted the most xG in the league this campaign, and Newcastle have lost just one EPL match to a non-big-six side since December 12th. Magpies striker Chris Wood ($17) is off to a slow start on Tyneside, but he's a modest-salaried way to get exposure to Newcastle and might be on pens.
The Villa-Leicester matchup is a huge shrug emoji for me. I have no feel whatsoever for how it will play out. Destined for a mid-table finish and with a European matchup against Roma on deck midweek, the Foxes might rest a lot of players, so that's something to watch for. Leicester have allowed at least 1.3 xG in seven straight EPL fixtures. Villa have permitted at least 1.0 xG in four games in a row. Ollie Watkins ($15) and Emi Buendia ($11) are my favorite ways to get access to Villa. James Maddison ($16) and Ademola Lookman ($15) are nice options for the Foxes if they start.
Added time -- Brentford's Ivan Toney ($17) will surely fall through the cracks at this salary. He's in intriguing GPP play. Tottenham have just one clean sheet across their last four matches, and Toney has bagged nine goals over his past 10 appearances. ... Newcastle's Allan Saint-Maximin ($18) and Bruno Guimarães ($15) are good picks if you have the salary to get there.
Watford's defenders will have high floors at City. Hassane Kamara ($14), Samir ($11), Kiko Femenia ($9) and Christian Kabasele ($7) are listed as expected starters for the Hornets. It's not fun to drop $14 for a defender who offers almost no attacking juice, but Kamara has scored at least 14.7 FanDuel points in four straight. He put up 20.8 FanDuel points at Liverpool recently in a similar matchup to this game at City.
Joao Cancelo ($15) will have plenty of chances to push forward against the Hornets. Last time out, he created two chances and amassed 22.5 FanDuel points, getting a 5.0-point lift from City keeping a clean sheet. He could post that kind of output again on Saturday, and he's a great piece to add to City stacks.
Matt Targett ($11) has been really good for Newcastle of late, and it's resulted in quality fantasy performances, as well. He's got 18.4 and 24.0 FanDuel points in his past two matches, and Targett should spend a lot of time forward at Norwich.
Added time -- James Justin ($9) could hit in what might be a pretty open affair between Leicester and Villa. Justin has flashed a high ceiling in the past. ... Craig Cathcart ($9) might wind up starting for Watford and would be a high-floor pick. ... Oleksandr Zinchenko ($8) will be a low-salary way to get a piece of City if he starts.
If you want the best chance at a win and clean sheet, Ederson ($14) is your guy. In the Hornets' last four matches against bix-six sides, they've been blanked three times. If we don't count the two recent bouts with Liverpool, City have surrendered a mere one goal over their last seven matches. Ederson can get 17.0 FanDuel points from a win and clean sheet before factoring in any save volume, which will be low if there is any at all.
Martin Dubravka ($11) makes a ton of sense and comes at a friendly salary. He may be the chalk keeper. Newcastle have been super stingy defensively of late, giving up fewer than 0.8 xG in five of their last six matches, a run which includes allowing 0.8 xG to Chelsea and 0.3 to Wolves. Playing at Norwich, Dubravka has a good chance to get a win and could pair that with a clean sheet.
On the flip side of that game, Tim Krul ($9) isn't a bad shout. He's almost always a safe bet for a few saves thanks to Norwich's shoddy defense, and while Newcastle are playing well, it's not like they're lighting up the scoreboard, totaling just five goals over their past six games. The ship might have already sailed on the Canaries' hopes of staying in the top flight, but if they have any chance to mount a great escape, it has to start with a win Saturday.
Added time -- Ben Foster ($6) will get save volume, and if he limits City to just two or three goals, he could end up with a decent FanDuel output. Of course, City could score five and leave Foster with negative points. ... In the Spurs-Brentford match, I think I have more interest in David Raya ($8) than Hugo Lloris ($12), but I don't love either option to be honest. And you can say the same for Emiliano Martinez ($10) and Kasper Schmeichel ($10) in Villa-Leicester.