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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Logan Webb ($10,200)
San Francisco's right-hander struggled in his last start, inducing a low 6.7% swinging strike rate and a 5.00 Fielding Independent Pitching rating (FIP) on 75 pitches.
Despite his poor outing, Webb has been in overall good form through 17.2 innings this season, accounting for a 3.49 expected FIP and a 58.9% ground ball rate. Although we want to see a higher K-rate, Webb has been on par with last season's swinging strike rate (12.4% in 2021) with a 11.3% mark.
Even in a middling spot against a Washington Nationals team with a 19.9% strikeout percentage and .283 weighted on-base average (wOBA), Webb still stands as numberFire's third ranked pitcher with a 31.1 FanDuel point projection and 5.4 expected strikeouts.
Shane McClanahan ($9,500)
Tampa Bay's 24-year old left-hander has gotten off to a quick start in his sophomore big league season, accounting for a 17.6% swinging strike rate and a sparkling 1.61 expected FIP in 15.0 total innings.
On Sunday, McClanahan will take the mound in a divisional matchup against a Boston lineup with 55% of their hitters with a K-percentage higher than 20% and an overall low walk rate of 6.4%.
numberFire's models currently project McClanahan as today's second rated pitcher with a 32.7 FanDuel point expectation and 5.9 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole ($8,800)
Despite an ugly 6.35 Earned Run Average in his first three starts, Cole's advanced statistics show some positive regression with a 4.57 expected FIP and a 16.3% swinging strike rate.
New York's right-hander will have an ideal spot on Sunday afternoon to improve upon his poor beginning versus a Cleveland Guardians squad with a 22.0% strikeout rate and a poor .282 wOBA against right-handers.
Cole should be able to aggressively pitch against a Guardians' lineup with 55% of their batters with strikeout percentages over 20% and contact rates under 79%.
In today's most favorable offensive environment with winds reportedly blowing out to left-center at 25 miles per hour, the Cubs should be today's most popular stack against JT Brubaker.
In his third season, Brubaker has overall struggled to a 5.06 expected FIP while also allowing an alarming 13.5% increase in his fly-ball rate from his career norm (35.1%).
Today's lineup offers several hitters to take advantage of Brubaker's trouble against lefties including Ian Happ (.345 expected wOBA, 47.1% hard hit rate), Jonathan Villar (44.1% hard hit rate, .300 expected average), Jason Heyward ($2,300, 45% hard hit rate) and other hitters in ideal form such as Willson Contreras (8.6% barrel rate, .395 expected wOBA) and Seiya Suzuki (24.1% barrel rate, .446 expected wOBA) to round out Chicago's stack.
Pittsburgh could easily go overlooked despite their sneaky 4.6 implied total and matchup against Justin Steele.
After a mediocre 2021 season, the 26-year old left-hander has produced similar numbers so far this season, recording a 4.11 expected FIP and a poor 5.4% swinging strike rate.
Several intriguing pieces of the Pirates' lineup offer salary flexibility against Steele's splits against right-handed hitters including Ke'Bryan Hayes (7.7% barrel rate, .327 expected average), Michael Chavis (.335 expected average, 6.7% barrel rate), Bryan Reynolds (7.7% barrel rate, 41% hard hit rate), and Roberto Perez (11.1% barrel rate, 61.1% hard hit rate).
In his two outings despite producing a 3.24 Earned Run Average, the 30-year old is on track for some regression after he also accounted for a 4.78 expected FIP and a 51.9% hard hit rate.
Houston's lineup is filled with value options mostly in the infield including Jeremy Pena (17.1% barrel rate, .389 expected wOBA), Martin Maldonado (13.6% barrel rate, .337 expected wOBA), Alex Bregman (.323 expected wOBA, 10% barrel rate) as well as other options such as Yordan Alvarez (.435 expected wOBA, 14.3% barrel percentage) and Kyle Tucker (10.3% barrel rate, .306 expected average).