The sports world will turn its collective attention to the EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl on Christmas Eve.
There just isn't anything else to be tuning into. The NBA and NHL are off, and so is college basketball.
With the spotlight shining on this game, who should we be preferring between the 6-6 Memphis Tigers and the 6-7 Hawaii Warriors?
Let's dig in.
Game Overview
Here's a snapshot of each team's pass and rush offense and defense ranks based on adjusted passing yards per attempt and rushing yards per carry.
Team Passing
Offense Passing
Defense Rushing
Offense Rushing
Defense Hawai'i Warriors 94746777 Memphis Tigers 50658282
Amongst a lot of mid-level ranks, the Tigers' passing offense rates out as the standout unit, sitting 50th overall in adjusted passing yards per attempt.
CollegeFootballData.com's predicted points added (PPA) model ranks the Tigers' passing offense 48th with the Warriors also 94th, so the passing edge, on the full season, belongs to Memphis.
But not so fast.
Memphis is a bit depleted. Lead receiver Calvin Austin III will not play in the team's bowl game. Austin III accounted for 1,149 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. Leading rusher Brandon Thomas (669 yards and 8 touchdowns) is doubtful, as well.
So is Hawai'i. They are without quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, running back Dae Dae Hunter, and defensive backs Cameron Lockridge and Kai Kaneshiro.
Freshman quarterback Brayden Schager has accounted for 615 yards on 108 attempts (5.7 yards per attempt) with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions (for an adjusted yards per attempt rate of 4.0 and a quarterback rating of 104.9).
Those are well shy of Cordeiro's marks (7.9 yards per attempt, 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt, and a 131.4 quarterback rating). Cordeiro's PPA per pass of 0.25 also bests Schager's 0.10.
Each side is just 2-5 in seven games against bowl-bound teams.
This game -- as you can tell by the name -- is in Hawai'i on their campus.
Algorithm-Based Bets
Our detailed game projections are siding with the Warriors +8.0 and views them as 56.4% likely to cover. The expected return is 7.7%, leading to a one-star recommendation out of five.
There's no action on the moneyline, via the model.
It is seeing value on the over (56.5), which is treated as a three-star play out of five. That means the algorithm here suggests a three-unit wager on the over. This is despite the fact that Hawai'i games have gone over in 5 of 12 games -- but have fallen short by an average of just 1.4 points. Memphis overs are 4-7 and have been 2.7 points shy, on average.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, overs are 18-7.
Teams representing the Warriors are 17-7-1 against the spread, as well.
We can lean on the Warriors +8.0 and the over.