Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Thursday Night Football: Jets-Browns

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football.

8:15 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-7.5, 34.5)

The Jets (6-9) have won two of their last three games and just edged the Commanders 30-28 but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Browns (10-5) have won three straight games and just brushed aside the Texans 36-22, easily covering as 3-point road favorites.

This line opened with the Browns listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Currently 71% of bets and 80% of money is laying the points with Cleveland. This heavily lopsided action from both the public and sharp bettors has steamed the Browns up from -5.5 to -7.5. We haven't seen any buyback on the Jets. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 91-75 ATS (55%) since 2006. Those wary of laying the points after the line has moved so much could instead target Cleveland in a teaser (-7.5 to -1.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. The Browns are 7-1 at home this season. The Jets are 2-4 on the road.

The Jets have buy-low contrarian value, receiving only 29% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 26-24 ATS (52%) this season and 118-88 ATS (57%) since 2020. The next move will be telling. If we start to see this line fall from +7.5 to +7, that will indicate late respected money breaking toward the Jets with the hook. If it blows through -7.5 and rises to -8, that will be further evidence of Browns sharp action.

Sharps have also leaned under, as the total has dipped slightly from 35 to 34.5. This movement is subtle but meaningful because 69% of bets have taken the over yet the total has ticked down, indicating smart money on a lower scoring game. When the total is less than 39, the under is 24-16 (60%) this season. Primetime unders are 32-21 (60%).

Weather could also play a role here, as the forecast calls for mid 30s with cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 133-72 (65%) since 2021. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a conference game, the under is 57-25 (70%) since 2022.

Player Prop to Consider: David Njoku over 49.5 (-125) receiving yards. The over is juiced up, signaling over liability. Njoku has gone over this number in seven of his last ten games. Njoku is second on the team in targets with 115, trailing only Amari Cooper (128). Njoku has been targeted 37 times in four games since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback, an average of 9.25 targets per game.