Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday January 7

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday's NFL Week 18 slate.

1 p.m. ET: New York Jets at New England Patriots (-2, 29.5)

The Jets (6-10) have dropped seven of their last nine games and just fell to the Browns 37-20, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Patriots (4-12) have won two of their last four games and just fell to the Bills 27-21 but covered as 14.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Patriots listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. We've seen New England move from -1.5 to -2. Some shops even reached Patriots -2.5 at times throughout the week. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability is on New England. The Patriots are receiving 68% of bets and 72% of money, indicating both public and sharp support. Those looking to back New England could instead target the Patriots on the moneyline at -130. The Patriots are 15-0 against the Jets in the last 15 head-to-head matchups. One major factor to consider is the fact that this could be Bill Belichick's last game as coach of the Patriots. Belichick hates the Jets and the team is likely to rally around him in what could be his final game. We've also seen the total plummet from 38 to 29.5 due to major weather concerns. The forecast calls for low 30s, snow and 15-20 MPH winds. The total has fallen from 30.5 to 29.5 over the past 24-hours.

4:25 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 42) at New York Giants

The Eagles (11-5) have lost four of their last five games and just fell to the Cardinals 35-31, losing outright as 11.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Giants (5-11) have dropped three straight games and just fell to the Rams 26-25 but were able to cover as 6-point home dogs. This line opened with the Eagles listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public won't quit Philadelphia and currently 65% of bets are laying the points with the Eagles. However, despite receiving a majority of bets we've seen the Eagles fall from -6.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Giants, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. New York is only receiving 35% of bets but 51% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The Giants also have value as a divisional dog and a dog in a low total game (42). Tyrod Taylor is 3-0-1 ATS with the Giants and 32-21 ATS (60%) in his career. Brian Daboll is 17-9 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. New York is also in a prime teaser spot (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.

8:20 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-3, 48.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Bills (10-6) have won five of their last six games and just edged the Patriots 27-21 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Dolphins (11-5) just got crushed by the Ravens 56-19, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bills listed as a short 2-point road favorite. All movement and liability has been on Buffalo, as the Bills have been steamed up from -2 to -3. Currently 65% of bets and 76% of money is laying the points with Buffalo, signaling a heavy combination of both public and sharp support. Injuries could play a big factor here, as the Bills are at full strength while the Dolphins are banged up and will be without defensive stars Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard. Plus offensive weapons Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle are questionable. Those looking to follow the sharp line move with Buffalo but wary of laying the key number of 3 could instead target Buffalo on the moneyline at -150. Road favorites are 64-34 (65%) straight up this season. The Bills crushed the Dolphins 48-20 in Week 4. The Dolphins are just 1-4 against teams with a winning record this season.