Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday December 31

Happy New Year's Eve!

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NFL Week 17 slate.

1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (-6, 43.5) at New York Giants

The Rams (8-7) have won five of their last six games and just brushed aside the Saints 30-22, covering as 4-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Giants (5-10) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Eagles 33-25 but managed to cover as 14-point road dogs. This line opened with the Rams listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Los Angeles. However, despite receiving 79% of bets the Rams haven't moved off -6. The line has even briefly dipped to -5.5 at times throughout the week. Normally, if a team is receiving such heavy support you would see the oddsmakers adjust them up from -6 to -7 or higher. However, the fact the line hasn't moved indicates a sharp line freeze on the Giants, with the books reluctant to move to the number for fear of giving out additional points to contrarian New York bettors. The Giants are one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 21% of bets. Tyrod Taylor , who is getting the start at quarterback for the Giants today, is 31-21 ATS (60%) in his career, including 2-0-1 ATS with New York. Brian Daboll is 16-9 ATS (64%) as a dog in his career. Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 41.5 to 43.5. Currently 69% of bets and 84% of money is taking the over, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy.

Player Prop to Consider: Darren Waller over 38.5 receiving yards (-115). Waller is 2-0 to the over on this number with Taylor at quarterback this season. He caught 5 passes for 43 yards against the Bills and 7 passes for 98 yards against the Commanders, his best offensive output of the season.

1 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-4, 42.5)

The Raiders (7-8) have won two straight games and just upset the Chiefs 20-14, winning outright as 11-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Colts (8-7) have dropped two of their last three games and just got rolled by the Falcons 29-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the Raiders. However, despite 69% of bets taking the points with Las Vegas we've actually seen the line move toward the Colts -3 to -4. Indianapolis moved from -3.5 to -4 over the past 24-hours, indicating late movement breaking further in their direction. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Indianapolis, with pros fading the trendy dog Raiders and instead laying the points with the contrarian home favorite Colts. Indianapolis is only receiving 31% of bets but 40% of money, a sharp bet split. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 44 to 42.5.

Player Prop to Consider: Josh Downs over 36.5 receiving yards (-120). Downs is 9-6 to the over on this number this season. Down had a team-high 9 targets last week, catching 6 passes for 39 yards. Downs is second on the team is targets with 93, trailing only Michael Pittman Jr.

4:25 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 44)

The Bengals (8-7) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Steelers 34-11 and losing outright as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (9-6) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Raiders 20-14, losing outright as 11-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as high as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public won't quit the Chiefs, who are receiving 63% of bets. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Kansas City fall from -7.5 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bengals, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 105-68 ATS (61%) since 2018. Cincinnati also enjoys a "rest vs tired" advantage as the Bengals last played on Saturday while the Chiefs are on a short week having played on Monday. Patrick Mahomes is just 21-26 ATS (45%) in his career as a favorite of 6.5-points or more. Pros also seem to be leaning under as the total has dipped slightly from 44.5 to 44. Currently 32% of bets but 48% of money is taking the under, a sharp contrarian bet split. When both teams made the postseason the previous year, as is the case here, the under is 32-18 (64%) this season.

Player Prop to Consider: Joe Mixon over 43.5 rushing yards (-135). Mixon has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. He is 11-4 to the over on the season. The Chiefs just gave up 145 rushing yards to Zamir White of the Raiders last week.