Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44)
The Bears (3-8) just fell to the Lions 31-26 but covered as 7.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Vikings (6-5) just lost to the Broncos 21-20 but covered as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they're rushing to the window to lay the points with the Vikings. However, despite receiving 75% of bets we've seen Minnesota fall from -3.5 to -3. And now the Bears +3 is being juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further fall down to +2.5. Why is this line trending toward Chicago if the public is so heavy on Minnesota? Because sharps have sided with the road dog Bears plus the points, triggering reverse line movement in favor of Chicago.
The Bears are only receiving 25% of bets but 42% of money, a notable sharp contrarian "low bets, higher dollars" bet split in a heavily bet primetime game. Chicago also has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 186-155 ATS (55%) since 2020. Short road dogs +3 or less are 117-95 ATS (55%) since 2019.
The total hasn't budged much off the opener of 44. It has touched both 43.5 and 44.5 throughout the week before settling right in the middle. Currently 54% of bets and 53% of money is taking the over. Unders are 105-73 (59%) this season. Primetime unders are an incredible 28-9 (76%), including 12-1 (92%) on Monday Night Football. Divisional unders are 85-67 (56%) since 2022. The Bears are 7-4 to the over. The Vikings are 8-3 to the under.
Both teams have struggled against the pass this season, with Minnesota allowing 227 yards per game (19th) and Chicago allowing 246 yards per game (25th). The Vikings have given up 899 yards to tight ends, the 3rd most in the NFL. Bears TE Cole Kmet has a receiving yard pro of 36.5 with the over juiced to -120. He has gone over this number in 7 of 10 games this season. Kmet is 2nd on the Bears in targets with 61, trailing only D.J. Moore.