Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mike Trout To Hit a Home Run (+275)
There are some great player props to look at tonight, so let's jump in.
Starting off, Mike Trout is just +275 hit a home run. While it seems like an obvious choice, Trout really is in a great spot tonight for a home run. I also like Byron Buxton to hit a home run, but his odds are +166! Those are some of the lowest odds I've ever seen for a homer. He's a great choice tonight, but I want a bit more value with Trout at +275.
Trout is taking on Daniel Lynch of the Kansas City Royals, and he is allowing a 4.36 xFIP, a .468 SLG, 1.51 HR/9, a 44.2% fly-ball rate, and a 38.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Lynch has allowed nine home runs this year, and they've all come via right-handed hitters.
It's a clear matchup to attack with Trout, who has a 223 wRC+, a .316 ISO, a 45.0% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Keep things simple tonight, and look to add Trout To Record an RBI (+110), too.
George Kirby Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
With a favorable matchup, we are looking to George Kirby's strikeout prop tonight.
There are a handful of teams we always want to target for strikeout props since they aren't disciplined at the plate, and the Oakland Athletics are one of them. This season, the Athletics have a 23.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league. Shocking -- a bad team like Oakland strikes out a ton.
Kirby will be opposing them on the mound, and he comes in with a 22.9% strikeout rate in his first year in the MLB -- and 43.0 innings under his belt. Kirby has been over this 4.5 mark in four of his eight starts this season, and he has been up at 7, 8, and 9 strikeouts.
He has clearly shown the ability to push towards his ceiling and with his favorable matchup, this looks like a spot he can do it again.
So, while I don't love the -130 juice on the 4.5 line, I'm looking directly to his alternate lines at 6+ Strikeouts (+168) and 7+ Strikeouts (+350).
Ryan Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+100)
First off, there's some potential for rain in this game, and it puts a bit of a question mark around things. If the game is good to go, we are looking to the Orioles' hitters since they are taking on Patrick Corbin, giving them just a delightful matchup. This season, Corbin is allowing a .361 wOBA, a .475 SLG, 1.29 HR/9, a 4.01 xFIP, and a 39.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
As usual, those are among the worst numbers you will find on the slate, and it points us directly to the righties for Baltimore.
We can turn to Ryan Mountcastle, who comes in with a 117 wRC+, a .169 ISO, a .333 wOBA, and a 43.2% hard-contact rate versus southpaws this season. He hits in the middle of the lineup and should have plenty of chances to cash in on this prop if the rain holds out.
Mountcastle to Record 2+ RBI (+350) is also worth a sprinkle.