NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 5/25/23

Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals is tonight, bringing plenty of pressure and a chance to move closer to the Stanley Cup Finals. What is the best way to approach tonight's game?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars

Under 5.5 (-115)

It's now or never for the Dallas Stars, who are down 0-3 to the Vegas Golden Knights.

With their backs against the wall, the Stars have to do everything right to keep this series -- and their season -- alive. That starts and ends with slowing down the Golden Knights' offense, which has poured in at least three goals in each of the three games this series.

Even though Vegas has been hot on offense, they can't continue to score at this rate. In this series alone, Vegas has scored 11 goals on just 7.0 Expected Goals Scored. It's great to be on a hot streak, but that is going to fall back down to earth.

When it comes to the Vegas' goaltending situation, Adin Hill has stepped up in a big way and now holds a 6.0 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), which has jumped him to the third-highest among any goalie throughout the entire playoffs.

Hill is peaking right now and has been able to stifle the Stars' offense this series.

With Vegas' offense due for some regression and Hill at the top of his game, the lack of scoring on both sides should be evident tonight. Under 5.5 goals is the play.