Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made Threes (+112)
I've missed on this prop twice in the series as I wrote up the over for both Games 1 and 2. I still think my process was sound there, and considering the over was -140 in those two games, I'm happy to jump on it at +112.
Of course, the over is priced where it is because Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been off in this series. He's hit multiple threes in only one of the four games and isn't even taking that many shots from deep, averaging just 3.5 three-point attempts per night in the NBA Finals -- and that's happened despite him facing a Miami Heat defense that has allowed the fourth-highest three-point attempt rate in the playoffs (42.8%).
Prior to the finals, KCP was averaging 4.9 three-point tries per game in this year's postseason, hitting an average of 2.0 of them per night. He nailed multiple threes in each of his last five games before the Finals, and while he was going to have a tough time maintaining that pace, KCP has regressed too far the other way.
We project Caldwell-Pope to go 2.2 of 5.4 from three in Game 5.
Bam Adebayo Under 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-113)
Bam Adebayo has been outstanding in the NBA Finals. He's averaged 22.3 points, 12.5 boards and 3.8 assists -- a total of 38.6 points, rebounds and assists (PRA). He's arguably been Miami's best player.
But I think his numbers are bound to come down eventually.
Bam was averaging just 16.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.8 dimes -- 29.8 PRA -- in 18 playoff games this year before the NBA Finals. The biggest jump during the FInals has been how many shots he's getting as he's taking 19.8 shots per night through four games against the Denver Nuggets -- 6.0 more shots per game than he was averaging through the first three rounds.
In the regular season, Adebayo was at averages of 20.4 points, 9.2 boards and 3.2 assists (32.8 PRA) on 14.9 shots per game.
Our model is right at this line, projecting Bam to record 20.2 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists (34.4 PRA). I'm not as high on him as our model is and will be backing this under for Game 5.