The Quick Lane Bowl is the lone bowl matchup on December 26th, and it kicks off at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.
The 6-6 Bowling Green Falcons are favored by 3.5 points, and the total is set at 48.5, according to the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Can the 6-6 New Mexico State Aggies win? Or at least cover the spread? Here's what our model thinks.
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green
New Mexico State +3.5 (-110) - 2 Stars out of 5
New Mexico State Moneyline (+146) - 2 Stars out of 5
The algorithm at numberFire likes this New Mexico State squad to cover the spread with a 60.9% probability. That makes it a two-star (i.e. two-unit) recommendation.
They're also 48.9% likely to win outright, which puts value on their moneyline, according to numberFire's model.
The most obvious in-game angle for the Aggies to win -- or at least cover -- is to control the game on the ground.
numberFire's metrics have New Mexico State ranked 56th in the nation in opponent-adjusted rushing yards per attempt offensively while Bowling Green is just 92nd on the defensive side -- and 126th offensively themselves.
In total, Bowling Green is the better team, according to numberFire's opponent-adjusted metrics, but they're still just 115th in the nation. That comes with a nERD score (i.e. expected point differential versus an average team at a neutral site) of -15.3.
New Mexico State is 125th with a nERD of -20.0, but based on the individual matchup here, our model is siding with the Aggies to cover.
So is the smart money. Although 54% of spread bets are on Bowling Green, 57% of the money is on New Mexico State.