Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NFL Week 18 doubleheader.
4:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 34.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers (9-7) have won two straight games and just upset the Seahawks 30-23, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (13-3) have won six straight games and just crushed the Dolphins 56-19, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as high as a 3.5-point home favorite. With the Ravens having already clinched the top seed in the AFC, Baltimore has elected to rest several of its starters for this game, including QB Lamar Jackson, WR Odell Beckham Jr, G Kevin Zeitler, CB Marlon Humphrey, LB Malik Harrison and DB Daryl Worley. Once this news was announced, we saw a massive line move in favor of Pittsburgh, with the Steelers flipping to as high as a 4-point road favorite. Pittsburgh, by the way, has yet to secure a playoff berth and will be fighting for their playoff lives.
However, over the past few days we've seen an overload of sharp buyback on Baltimore, with the Ravens dropping back +4 down to +3. Essentially, late movement is buying low on the Ravens as an inflated home dog. Currently 66% of bets and 62% of money is backing Baltimore plus the points. John Harbaugh is 2-0 ATS this season as a dog and 46-30 ATS (61%) as a dog in his career. Baltimore also has value as a divisional dog and a dog in a low total game. Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 55% ATS to the home team historically.
Pros have hammered the under, dropping the total from 44.5 to 34.5. Currently 33% of bets but 57% of money is taking the under, a sharp bet split. Weather could play a role here as the forecast calls for high 30s, rain and 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 133-74 (64%) since 2021.
8:15 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (-1.5, 47.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Texans (9-7) have won two of their last three games and just brushed aside the Titans 26-3, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Colts (9-7) have also won two of their last three and just edged the Raiders 23-20 but failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Colts listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Early money poured in on the Texans, flipping Houston to a 1.5-point road favorite. Houston is currently receiving 71% of bets and 80% of money, signaling both public and sharp support.
However, now that the line has moved so much off the opener it creates a buy-low opportunity to grab Indianapolis as an unpopular 1.5-point home dog. The Colts are the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 29% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 28-25 ATS (53%) this season and 120-89 ATS (57%) since 2020. Divisional dogs are 200-164 ATS (55%) since 2020. Conference dogs +6 or less are 333-257 ATS (56%) since 2019. Indianapolis is also in a prime teaser spot (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. The Colts are 3-0 in their last three home games.
The total has ticked up slightly from 46.5 to 47.5. Currently 51% of bets and 51% of money is taking the under. Primetime unders are 33-23 (59%) this season but the over has gone 14-4 over the last 18 primetime games.