Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
MLB Opening Day is here! I'll be bringing MLB props every weekday this season, so let's jump in!
Byron Buxton To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Minnesota Twins start the 2023 season in a great spot, and Byron Buxton has a solid matchup for a home run.
One of the main things we always want to be checking for MLB betting is the weather. The Twins are visiting the Kansas City Royals, where we see 20 MPH winds blowing out towards left field. This is a massive boost for hitters, and it puts Buxton in a spot to start the season off with a homer.
If we look back to last season, Buxton finished with a 126 wRC+, .287 ISO, 51.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are some elite power numbers and will consistently put him in a spot for home runs.
Today, he is taking on Zack Greinke, who allowed 1.13 HR/9 to righties last season, along with a 43.5% fly-ball rate and a 31.9% hard-contact rate. Ideally, the hard-contact rate would be a bit higher, but with that fly-ball rate allowed combined with the massive 20 MPH wind blowing out, it puts Buxton in a great spot.
The final note I'll add is that I always like to tack on the RBI prop for the same player because if he hits a home run, he will also have an RBI -- Buxton RBI prop (-110).
Austin Riley To Hit a Home Run (+320)
Next up, we're turning to one of the best power hitters in the league, Austin Riley.
The Atlanta Braves have a 4.49 implied run total and are set to take on Patrick Corbin, which presents a favorable matchup for several hitters. Corbin struggled last season versus righties to the tune of 1.79 HR/9 allowed, a 35.0% fly-ball rate, a 41.1% hard-contact rate, and a .388 wOBA. Corbin is bad versus righty hitters, and we will be attacking him all season.
When it comes to Riley, he had elite power numbers versus lefties last season with a 196 wRC+, .342 ISO, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 42.6% hard-contact rate. Those are some of the best numbers we can find on any slate, not to mention he has a super soft matchup versus Corbin.
Of course, I'll look to add Riley RBI (+105), too.
Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
When it comes to strikeouts, we're starting the season with Shane McClanahan.
McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in the league last season with a 30.3% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 2.60 xFIP, and 15.5% swinging-strike rate. He has absolute gas on the mound and can pile up strikeouts quickly in nearly any matchup. McClanahan posted 67 pitches in his final spring training start, which should put him at 80-plus pitches today.
He's going up against the Detroit Tigers, whose current active roster carried a 22.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers last season, which is the 10th-worst in the league. This matchup puts McClanahan to start the season off on the right foot and pile up the strikeouts versus a weak lineup.