Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jose Altuve To Hit a Home Run (+440)
The Houston Astros have a very strong 5.18 implied run total and a favorable matchup for some homers.
With Jose Altuve returning to the Astros' lineup, it's that much better and presents a very difficult task for opposing pitchers. As a reminder, Altuve missed the beginning of the season with a hand injury, so we'll look back to his numbers from last season. In 2022, Altuve had a 148 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .202 ISO, and 36.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. That's solid stuff across the board.
For the Oakland Athletics, they will have James Kaprielian on the mound tonight. He has only 28.0 innings pitched this season since being up and down from the minors. We'll glance at his 2022 numbers, where he allowed a .340 wOBA, .436 SLG, 5.25 xFIP, 1.26 HR/9, and 47.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.
Add in a little bit of wind blowing out to right tonight, and it puts Altuve in a nice spot to knock one out.
Mitch Keller Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Mitch Keller is a stud. That's the short answer when it comes to Keller tonight.
Of course, there's a long answer, as Keller has taken a massive step forward for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season and is showing ace-type material on the mound.
Last season, he posted a 20.1% strikeout rate, 8.7% swinging-strike rate, and 25.8% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). Those were all modest numbers, but they have jumped up this season to a 30.7% strikeout rate, 10.0% swinging-strike rate, and 30.1% CSW%. It's a noticeable increase in production for Keller, and with him pushing towards 100 pitches every game, he should have plenty of time to rack up the strikeouts.
He will be taking on the Seattle Mariners, who come in with a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. This is the ideal matchup for Keller to continue his strong start to the season.
Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
We have a great hitter with great odds tonight -- it's as simple as that.
The New York Yankees are calling up Randy Vasquez to make his MLB debut tonight against the San Diego Padres. Vasquez has been very average in Triple-A this season with a 25.5% strikeout rate, 11.7% walk rate, 1.05 HR/9, and .348 BABIP. Frankly, there's nothing suggesting he is a dominant top prospect and ready to make an easy transition to the MLB.
When this is the case, I'm going to side with a proven MLB hitter with odds at plus money, and tonight that is Xander Bogaerts. This season, Bogaerts has a 134 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .159 ISO, .330 BABIP, and 20.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He doesn't waste too many chances at the plate, and he's putting the ball in play for hits.
With the Padres carrying a 4.61 implied run total, they're expected to get some runners on base, and Bogaerts should play a big part in that.