We have a lot of pieces on numberFire geared toward helping you figure out which players you should roster in your DFS contests on FanDuel, but an important aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play.
Narrowing down your list of potential plays by avoiding those who are destined to underwhelm can go a long way toward helping you create winning lineups.
Inevitably, some of the players I feature in this article will blow up and pop for a big game, but that comes with the territory of doing a piece like this one -- unless I'm going to tell you to avoid playing dudes who aren't on anyone's radar. I'm trying to avoid that. I want this piece to be useful.
Here are some players I'm fading this week.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens ($8,200)
Lamar Jackson has the upside to break any slate. He just hasn't been that good lately, and there's not much reason to believe a spike week is coming on Sunday.
Jackson's 23.06 FanDuel points last week were his most since Week 3. The running numbers are still there; it's the passing totals that have gone down the crapper. He's got only four passing scores over the previous five games, and since his Week 3 explosion (40.42 FanDuel points), Lamar has four games with fewer than 200 passing yards.
On top of that, Jackson draws a difficult matchup versus a Denver Broncos defense that is giving up the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (12.8). Denver has allowed just 125 rushing yards -- the third-fewest -- to the position all year.
Said Week 3 game is a cautionary tale. I wrote up Lamar as an avoid that week in what was a rough road matchup with the New England Patriots. Jackson went nuclear, and maybe that happens on Sunday. As I said at the jump, Lamar has huge upside every time out.
But given Jackson's recent form, his $8,200 salary and the matchup with Denver, I'm off him this week.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs ($7,000)
The Kansas City Chiefs' clash with the Cincinnati Bengals is a game we all want exposure to. The total is 52.5 points, and the spread is 2.5. It should be a dream for DFS.
Isiah Pacheco is a modest-salaried way to get in on the fun, but with Pacheco barely a factor in the passing game, he's a tough sell for me.
The rookie back has four targets all year, including one look over the past three games. That caps his upside. A week ago, in a 22-carry day where he scored a touchdown, Pacheco generated just 15.1 FanDuel points.
The Bengals have been decent against running backs, too, holding the position to the 13th-fewest FanDuel points per game (19.3).
Another thing that dings Pacheco this week is that there are some other appealing -- more appealing in my eyes -- backs in his salary range. David Montgomery ($7,000), Aaron Jones ($7,400) and Dameon Pierce ($6,500) are guys I prefer to Pacheco.
If Jerick McKinnon -- who didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday -- can't go, that changes everything. But assuming McKinnon plays, Pacheco isn't someone I'll have much of.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings ($6,400)
T.J. Hockenson has mostly been pretty good since coming to the Minnesota Vikings, and while I don't necessarily think he's a bad play against the New York Jets, the way the tight end position shakes out this week, Hockenson is an awkward customer.
All in all, tight end is actually pretty solid this week -- especially when it comes to value options. So, for me, I'm either finding the salary to get to Travis Kelce ($8,400) in what should be a shootout or I'm taking a shot on a low-salary play such as Pat Freiermuth ($5,900), Foster Moreau ($5,500) or Evan Engram ($4,800). Due to his salary, Hockenson is in no man's land for me.
You can make a case for Hockenson as a GPP play if it looks like the masses will go star or scrub at tight end. But there are also reasons to be wary of him.
Gang Green is giving up just 8.6 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the 12th-fewest, and after going for 70 yards in his Minnesota debut, Hockenson has been held to 43, 34 and 45 yards over his last three games.
Among the six highest-salaried players at tight end this week -- counting only the guys with no injury issues (as of Friday morning) -- Hockenson rates out as the worst point-per-dollar play, per our model.