There are just three games on Wednesday's NHL slate, but with multi-star recommendations in two of them, we'll leave an off day for another day.
Which games are we betting on via the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs ML (-152) - 2 Stars
This is a line you'll want to shop. Some books have this as low as -140, and others even creep toward -160. Either way, our model likes this line at FanDuel Sportsbook's -152 price. These are two of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but rested and on home ice, Toronto should have the edge.
Since February 1st, the Florida Panthers have posted the most expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes in the NHL (3.98), but the Leafs (3.22) join them in the top 10 of that category. Defensively is where things even out a bit. In that same period, Toronto has tallied the 12th-fewest expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 (2.94), and Florida has ceded the 14th-mostxGA per 60 (3.17).
If you do the math, the Panthers' expected goal differential is higher, but these two teams are thoroughly separated by goaltending. At 14.39 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), Ilya Samsonov is 13th among 97 goalies with an appearance this season. Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky (2.92 GSAx) is 41st.
Behind Samsovov, our model expects the Leafs to win 66.8% of the time tonight, but these odds imply just a 60.3% chance.
New York Islanders at Washington Capitals
Under 5.5 (-102) - 2 Stars
The Capitals haven't played a game that featured fewer than six goals since March 9th. This contrarian under has an explanation, though.
New York is an under machine. Offensively, the Isles have posted the 10th-fewest xGF per 60 minutes since February 1st (3.00). Defensive, the team is midpack in xGA per 60 minutes (3.03), but there's a great equalizer in goal.
Ilya Sorokin should win this year's Vezina Trophy but probably won't due to team success. He leads the NHL in GSAx (46.77) by over 10 goals above expectation as the clear number-one netminder in the sport this season independent of his defense. Sorokin is largely responsible for 41 of the 75 Islanders contests paying out on the under.
Washington's shoddy defense aside, Darcy Kuemper has been solid in goal himself. He's 14th in GSAx this season (12.66) and will be helped by New York's inept offense in this one.
With two solid goaltenders in net, our model believes the under hits 56.0% of the time at this mark. These odds imply just a 50.5% chance it happens.