MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 5/17/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFChadKuhl11.06.0255.8%39.7%25.9%15.5%8.5%
LADTylerGilbert9.05.2242.3%27.1%15.7%8.3%4.1%
COLAlexCobb11.04.9838.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
NYYSpenserWatkins8.04.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
CLEConnorOverton8.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
MIAJoanAdon8.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
LADMerrillKelly8.04.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
LAATaylorHearn8.54.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
BOSJoseUrquidy8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
CHWBradySinger8.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
PHIMikeClevinger8.54.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
TORLoganGilbert8.04.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
SDZachEflin8.54.1824.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
KCDavisMartin8.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
MILTuckerDavidson8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
HOUNathanEovaldi8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
TEXReidDetmers8.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
CHCJTBrubaker7.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
TBBeauBrieske6.54.0121.6%11.2%5.2%2.2%0.8%
NYMMilesMikolas8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
STLTrevorWilliams8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
MINJamesKaprielian7.53.9721.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
NYMMilesMikolas7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
ATLAdrianHouser8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
CINZachPlesac8.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
WSHCodyPoteet8.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
ARIRyanPepiot9.03.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
SEAJoseBerrios8.03.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
STLTaijuanWalker7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
OAKDylanBundy7.53.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
ARITylerAnderson8.03.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
PITKeeganThompson7.53.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
BALJamesonTaillon8.03.2911.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
DETShaneMcClanahan6.52.494.1%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
ShaneMcClanahanDET6.790%79%65%50%35%23%14%
NathanEovaldiHOU6.085%71%55%39%25%15%8%
JoseBerriosSEA5.580%65%48%32%20%11%6%
AdrianHouserATL5.073%56%38%24%13%7%3%
JamesonTaillonBAL5.073%56%38%24%13%7%3%
LoganGilbertTOR5.073%56%38%24%13%7%3%
JoanAdonMIA5.073%56%38%24%13%7%3%
JTBrubakerCHC4.870%52%34%21%11%5%2%
AlexCobbCOL4.770%51%34%20%11%5%2%
TylerAndersonARI4.769%51%34%20%11%5%2%
TuckerDavidsonMIL4.769%51%34%20%11%5%2%
ZachEflinSD4.769%50%33%19%10%5%2%
JamesKaprielianMIN4.566%47%30%17%9%4%2%
MerrillKellyLAD4.465%46%29%16%8%4%2%
MilesMikolasNYM4.463%44%27%15%7%3%1%
TaijuanWalkerSTL4.463%44%27%15%7%3%1%
BradySingerCHW4.463%44%27%15%7%3%1%
ChadKuhlSF4.362%42%26%14%7%3%1%
ZachPlesacCIN4.261%42%25%14%7%3%1%
MikeClevingerPHI4.260%41%25%13%6%3%1%
JoseUrquidyBOS4.260%40%24%13%6%3%1%
TylerGilbertLAD4.158%38%23%12%6%2%1%
TaylorHearnLAA4.057%38%22%11%5%2%1%
ReidDetmersTEX3.955%36%20%10%5%2%1%
MilesMikolasNYM3.954%35%19%10%4%2%1%
RyanPepiotARI3.853%33%19%9%4%2%1%
BeauBrieskeTB3.750%31%17%8%3%1%0%
DavisMartinKC3.547%28%15%7%3%1%0%
CodyPoteetWSH3.547%28%15%7%3%1%0%
ConnorOvertonCLE3.241%23%11%5%2%1%0%
TrevorWilliamsSTL3.240%22%11%5%2%1%0%
KeeganThompsonPIT3.036%19%9%4%1%0%0%
SpenserWatkinsNYY3.036%19%8%3%1%0%0%
DylanBundyOAK2.933%17%8%3%1%0%0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter OppPitcher ProjHR HRProbability xHROdds
JoeyGalloSpenserWatkins0.6132.5%+208
BryceHarperMikeClevinger0.4527.9%+259
AaronJudgeSpenserWatkins0.4026.0%+285
SalvadorPerezDavisMartin0.4026.0%+285
BrandonBeltChadKuhl0.3724.7%+304
GiancarloStantonSpenserWatkins0.3423.4%+328
ByronBuxtonJamesKaprielian0.3322.9%+336
NickCastellanosMikeClevinger0.3121.9%+356
GeorgeSpringerLoganGilbert0.3021.4%+367
JesusAguilarJoanAdon0.3021.4%+367
MikeZuninoBeauBrieske0.2920.9%+378
AnthonyRizzoSpenserWatkins0.2820.4%+391
BrettPhillipsBeauBrieske0.2820.4%+391
JoseRamirezConnorOverton0.2820.4%+391
JesseWinkerJoseBerrios0.2820.4%+391
JoshBellCodyPoteet0.2820.4%+391
LuisRobertBradySinger0.2719.8%+404
DannyJansenLoganGilbert0.2719.8%+404
EugenioSuarezJoseBerrios0.2619.3%+418
JazzChisholmJoanAdon0.2619.3%+418
RafaelDeversJoseUrquidy0.2619.3%+418
PatrickWisdomJTBrubaker0.2619.3%+418
RhysHoskinsMikeClevinger0.2518.7%+434
ShoheiOhtaniTaylorHearn0.2518.7%+434
AdolisGarciaReidDetmers0.2518.7%+434
JaredWalshTaylorHearn0.2518.7%+434
MookieBettsTylerGilbert0.2518.7%+434
HunterRenfroeTuckerDavidson0.2518.7%+434
MikeYastrzemskiChadKuhl0.2518.7%+434
JorgePolancoJamesKaprielian0.2518.7%+434
SethBrownDylanBundy0.2518.7%+434
TylerStephensonZachPlesac0.2518.7%+434
KyleSchwarberMikeClevinger0.2418.2%+451
RamonLaureanoDylanBundy0.2418.2%+451
FranciscoLindorMilesMikolas0.2418.2%+451
EnriqueHernandezJoseUrquidy0.2418.2%+451
AnthonySantanderJamesonTaillon0.2317.6%+469
ChristianWalkerRyanPepiot0.2317.6%+469
WillSmithTylerGilbert0.2317.6%+469
MaxMuncyMerrillKelly0.2317.6%+469
FranciscoLindorMilesMikolas0.2317.6%+469
JeanSeguraMikeClevinger0.2217.0%+490
J.T.RealmutoMikeClevinger0.2217.0%+490
CoreySeagerReidDetmers0.2217.0%+490
MaxMuncyTylerGilbert0.2217.0%+490
MiguelCabreraShaneMcClanahan0.2217.0%+490
C.J.CronAlexCobb0.2217.0%+490
JocPedersonChadKuhl0.2217.0%+490
SheldonNeuseDylanBundy0.2217.0%+490
SeanMurphyDylanBundy0.2217.0%+490
BrandonDruryZachPlesac0.2217.0%+490
FranmilReyesConnorOverton0.2217.0%+490
MookieBettsMerrillKelly0.2217.0%+490
KetelMarteTylerAnderson0.2217.0%+490
JoseAltuveNathanEovaldi0.2217.0%+490
WillyAdamesTuckerDavidson0.2116.3%+512
PeteAlonsoMilesMikolas0.2116.3%+512
VladimirGuerreroJr.LoganGilbert0.2116.3%+512
YordanAlvarezNathanEovaldi0.2116.3%+512
ChasMcCormickNathanEovaldi0.2116.3%+512
TylerO'NeillTaijuanWalker0.2116.3%+512
PeteAlonsoMilesMikolas0.2116.3%+512
MannyMachadoZachEflin0.2015.7%+536
TaylorWardTaylorHearn0.2015.7%+536
ChrisTaylorTylerGilbert0.2015.7%+536
RonaldAcunaAdrianHouser0.2015.7%+536
BrandonCrawfordChadKuhl0.2015.7%+536
CharlieBlackmonAlexCobb0.2015.7%+536
GarySanchezJamesKaprielian0.2015.7%+536
GavinSheetsBradySinger0.2015.7%+536
FreddieFreemanMerrillKelly0.2015.7%+536
WillSmithMerrillKelly0.2015.7%+536
PaulGoldschmidtTrevorWilliams0.2015.7%+536
TylerO'NeillTrevorWilliams0.2015.7%+536
BoBichetteLoganGilbert0.2015.7%+536
JorgeSolerJoanAdon0.2015.7%+536
TommyEdmanTaijuanWalker0.2015.7%+536
BenGamelKeeganThompson0.2015.7%+536
KoleCalhounReidDetmers0.1915.1%+564
DaultonVarshoRyanPepiot0.1915.1%+564
JonathanSchoopShaneMcClanahan0.1915.1%+564
EvanLongoriaChadKuhl0.1915.1%+564
MaxKeplerJamesKaprielian0.1915.1%+564
ChrisTaylorMerrillKelly0.1915.1%+564
J.D.MartinezJoseUrquidy0.1915.1%+564
PaulGoldschmidtTaijuanWalker0.1915.1%+564
WillsonContrerasJTBrubaker0.1915.1%+564
AnthonyRendonTaylorHearn0.1814.4%+594
RobbieGrossmanShaneMcClanahan0.1814.4%+594
MarcellOzunaAdrianHouser0.1814.4%+594
RowdyTellezTuckerDavidson0.1814.4%+594
LaMonteWadeJrChadKuhl0.1814.4%+594
ChadPinderDylanBundy0.1814.4%+594
ChristianWalkerTylerAnderson0.1814.4%+594
JuanYepezTaijuanWalker0.1814.4%+594
RafaelOrtegaJTBrubaker0.1814.4%+594
JoshVanMeterKeeganThompson0.1814.4%+594
SeiyaSuzukiJTBrubaker0.1814.4%+594
EliWhiteReidDetmers0.1713.7%+628
FreddieFreemanTylerGilbert0.1713.7%+628
GeraldoPerdomoRyanPepiot0.1713.7%+628
BrendanRodgersAlexCobb0.1713.7%+628
TonyKempDylanBundy0.1713.7%+628
YasmaniGrandalBradySinger0.1713.7%+628
AndrewBenintendiDavisMartin0.1713.7%+628
ColinMoranZachPlesac0.1713.7%+628
DaultonVarshoTylerAnderson0.1713.7%+628
JuanSotoCodyPoteet0.1713.7%+628
LukeVoitZachEflin0.1613.1%+666
MikeTroutTaylorHearn0.1613.1%+666
KoltenWongTuckerDavidson0.1613.1%+666
DansbySwansonAdrianHouser0.1613.1%+666
MattOlsonAdrianHouser0.1613.1%+666
OzzieAlbiesAdrianHouser0.1613.1%+666
LuisUriasTuckerDavidson0.1613.1%+666
AustinRileyAdrianHouser0.1613.1%+666
RandalGrichukAlexCobb0.1613.1%+666
JoeyBartChadKuhl0.1613.1%+666
JedLowrieDylanBundy0.1613.1%+666
JordanLuplowTylerAnderson0.1613.1%+666
FranchyCorderoJoseUrquidy0.1613.1%+666
CedricMullinsJamesonTaillon0.1512.4%+709
WilMyersZachEflin0.1512.4%+709
RandyArozarenaBeauBrieske0.1512.4%+709
WanderFrancoBeauBrieske0.1512.4%+709
ChristianYelichTuckerDavidson0.1512.4%+709
GioUrshelaJamesKaprielian0.1512.4%+709
YoanMoncadaBradySinger0.1512.4%+709
AndrewVaughnBradySinger0.1512.4%+709
EduardoEscobarMilesMikolas0.1512.4%+709
CalRaleighJoseBerrios0.1512.4%+709
CesarHernandezCodyPoteet0.1512.4%+709
JesusSanchezJoanAdon0.1512.4%+709
AlexBregmanNathanEovaldi0.1512.4%+709
EduardoEscobarMilesMikolas0.1512.4%+709
DylanCarlsonTaijuanWalker0.1512.4%+709
RodolfoCastroKeeganThompson0.1512.4%+709
Ji-ManChoiBeauBrieske0.1411.6%+759
YandyDiazBeauBrieske0.1411.6%+759
EricHaaseShaneMcClanahan0.1411.6%+759
ConnorJoeAlexCobb0.1411.6%+759
ThairoEstradaChadKuhl0.1411.6%+759
MikeMoustakasZachPlesac0.1411.6%+759
TommyPhamZachPlesac0.1411.6%+759
AustinHedgesConnorOverton0.1411.6%+759
CodyBellingerMerrillKelly0.1411.6%+759
NolanArenadoTrevorWilliams0.1411.6%+759
HarrisonBaderTrevorWilliams0.1411.6%+759
JuanYepezTrevorWilliams0.1411.6%+759
TeoscarHernandezLoganGilbert0.1411.6%+759
TyFranceJoseBerrios0.1411.6%+759
AvisailGarciaJoanAdon0.1411.6%+759
GarrettCooperJoanAdon0.1411.6%+759
KeibertRuizCodyPoteet0.1411.6%+759
HarrisonBaderTaijuanWalker0.1411.6%+759
BrendanDonovanTaijuanWalker0.1411.6%+759
IanHappJTBrubaker0.1411.6%+759
DJLeMahieuSpenserWatkins0.1310.9%+816
CodyBellingerTylerGilbert0.1310.9%+816
JavierBaezShaneMcClanahan0.1310.9%+816
VidalBrujanBeauBrieske0.1310.9%+816
TommyLaStellaChadKuhl0.1310.9%+816
RyanMcMahonAlexCobb0.1310.9%+816
KyleFarmerZachPlesac0.1310.9%+816
JustinTurnerMerrillKelly0.1310.9%+816
AlekThomasTylerAnderson0.1310.9%+816
BrandonNimmoMilesMikolas0.1310.9%+816
DylanCarlsonTrevorWilliams0.1310.9%+816
BrianAndersonJoanAdon0.1310.9%+816
XanderBogaertsJoseUrquidy0.1310.9%+816
YulieskiGurrielNathanEovaldi0.1310.9%+816
KyleTuckerNathanEovaldi0.1310.9%+816
NolanArenadoTaijuanWalker0.1310.9%+816
AlfonsoRivasJTBrubaker0.1310.9%+816
JoshDonaldsonSpenserWatkins0.1210.2%+883
TreyManciniJamesonTaillon0.1210.2%+883
CooperHummelRyanPepiot0.1210.2%+883
JacePetersonTuckerDavidson0.1210.2%+883
AdamDuvallAdrianHouser0.1210.2%+883
A.J.PollockBradySinger0.1210.2%+883
JoseAbreuBradySinger0.1210.2%+883
RyanO'HearnDavisMartin0.1210.2%+883
AmedRosarioConnorOverton0.1210.2%+883
TJFriedlZachPlesac0.1210.2%+883
GeraldoPerdomoTylerAnderson0.1210.2%+883
J.P.CrawfordJoseBerrios0.1210.2%+883
NelsonCruzCodyPoteet0.1210.2%+883
BrandonNimmoMilesMikolas0.1210.2%+883
BryanReynoldsKeeganThompson0.1210.2%+883
YoshitomoTsutsugoKeeganThompson0.1210.2%+883
TylerNevinJamesonTaillon0.119.4%+962
Ha-SeongKimZachEflin0.119.4%+962
BrysonStottMikeClevinger0.119.4%+962
CharlieCulbersonReidDetmers0.119.4%+962
AndyIbanezReidDetmers0.119.4%+962
JustinTurnerTylerGilbert0.119.4%+962
AlekThomasRyanPepiot0.119.4%+962
OmarNarvaezTuckerDavidson0.119.4%+962
TylerNaquinZachPlesac0.119.4%+962
OscarMercadoConnorOverton0.119.4%+962
TreaTurnerMerrillKelly0.119.4%+962
YadierMolinaTrevorWilliams0.119.4%+962
YadielHernandezCodyPoteet0.119.4%+962
JackieBradleyJoseUrquidy0.119.4%+962
JonathanVillarJTBrubaker0.119.4%+962
DanVogelbachKeeganThompson0.119.4%+962
MichaelPerezKeeganThompson0.119.4%+962
JorgeMateoJamesonTaillon0.108.6%+1058
EricHosmerZachEflin0.108.6%+1058
JuricksonProfarZachEflin0.108.6%+1058
JakeCronenworthZachEflin0.108.6%+1058
MarcusSemienReidDetmers0.108.6%+1058
DavidPeraltaRyanPepiot0.108.6%+1058
KevinKiermaierBeauBrieske0.108.6%+1058
EliasDiazAlexCobb0.108.6%+1058
HunterDozierDavisMartin0.108.6%+1058
MJMelendezDavisMartin0.108.6%+1058
AndresGimenezConnorOverton0.108.6%+1058
OwenMillerConnorOverton0.108.6%+1058
CooperHummelTylerAnderson0.108.6%+1058
BrendanDonovanTrevorWilliams0.108.6%+1058
JulioRodriguezJoseBerrios0.108.6%+1058
AustinHaysJamesonTaillon0.097.8%+1174
OdubelHerreraMikeClevinger0.097.8%+1174
TreaTurnerTylerGilbert0.097.8%+1174
DazCameronShaneMcClanahan0.097.8%+1174
SpencerTorkelsonShaneMcClanahan0.097.8%+1174
SamHilliardAlexCobb0.097.8%+1174
TimAndersonBradySinger0.097.8%+1174
MylesStrawConnorOverton0.097.8%+1174
GavinLuxMerrillKelly0.097.8%+1174
DominicSmithMilesMikolas0.097.8%+1174
MikeFordJoseBerrios0.097.8%+1174
MartinMaldonadoNathanEovaldi0.097.8%+1174
ChristianVazquezJoseUrquidy0.097.8%+1174
AlexVerdugoJoseUrquidy0.097.8%+1174
JeremyPenaNathanEovaldi0.097.8%+1174
JackSuwinskiKeeganThompson0.097.8%+1174
RougnedOdorJamesonTaillon0.087.0%+1320
TylerWadeTaylorHearn0.087.0%+1320
ChadWallachTaylorHearn0.087.0%+1320
NickSolakReidDetmers0.087.0%+1320
JeimerCandelarioShaneMcClanahan0.087.0%+1320
StevenKwanConnorOverton0.087.0%+1320
BradleyZimmerLoganGilbert0.087.0%+1320
DeeStrange-GordonCodyPoteet0.087.0%+1320
JacobStallingsJoanAdon0.087.0%+1320
VictorRoblesCodyPoteet0.087.0%+1320
MichaelBrantleyNathanEovaldi0.087.0%+1320
TrevorStoryJoseUrquidy0.087.0%+1320
DominicSmithMilesMikolas0.087.0%+1320
JasonHeywardJTBrubaker0.087.0%+1320
Ke'BryanHayesKeeganThompson0.087.0%+1320