MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 9/23/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U ImpliedTotal 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SDRyanFeltner11.06.0456.1%40.0%26.2%15.7%8.7%
COLSeanManaea11.04.9637.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
MILMikeMinor9.04.9537.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
LADJoseQuintana8.54.8034.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
NYYRichHill7.54.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
SFTommyHenry8.04.3026.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
NYMColeIrvin7.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
PITJavierAssad8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
HOUDeanKremer7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
CINEricLauer9.04.0522.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
CHWEduardoRodriguez7.03.9220.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
CHCBryseWilson8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
TEXCodyMorris7.53.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
PHIJakeOdorizzi7.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
TBMitchWhite7.03.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
ARICarlosRodon8.03.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
STLAndrewHeaney8.53.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
CLEJonGray7.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
BALJoseUrquidy7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
TORJeffreySprings7.03.2511.1%4.8%1.8%0.6%0.2%
ATLAaronNola7.03.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
BOSGerritCole7.53.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
DETLucasGiolito7.03.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
OAKChrisBassitt7.02.877.1%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp KProj 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
GerritColeBOS7.794.9%88.4%78.3%65.3%50.9%37.0%25.0%
AaronNolaATL7.393.3%85.3%73.7%59.5%44.7%31.2%20.2%
ShoheiOhtaniMIN7.393.1%85.0%73.2%59.0%44.1%30.7%19.8%
CarlosRodonARI7.091.7%82.4%69.5%54.6%39.7%26.7%16.6%
LucasGiolitoDET6.286.4%73.8%58.3%42.3%28.1%17.2%9.7%
ChrisBassittOAK6.084.6%71.1%54.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
JeffreySpringsTOR6.084.6%71.1%54.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
JonGrayCLE5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
AndrewHeaneySTL5.782.0%67.3%50.5%34.6%21.6%12.3%6.5%
JoseUrquidyBAL5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
BraxtonGarrettWSH5.275.9%59.1%41.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
BradySingerSEA5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
SeanManaeaCOL5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
EricLauerCIN4.972.2%54.4%36.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
JosiahGrayMIA4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
LouieVarlandLAA4.668.1%49.4%32.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
EduardoRodriguezCHW4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
JoseQuintanaLAD4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
MikeMinorMIL4.260.5%41.0%24.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
ColeIrvinNYM4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
JakeOdorizziPHI4.259.7%40.2%24.0%12.8%6.1%2.7%1.0%
MarcoGonzalesKC4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
JavierAssadPIT4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
DeanKremerHOU4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
RichHillNYY3.955.1%35.6%20.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
MitchWhiteTB3.853.1%33.6%18.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
TommyHenrySF3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
RyanFeltnerSD3.851.8%32.4%17.9%8.7%3.8%1.5%0.5%
CodyMorrisTEX3.545.9%27.1%14.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
BryseWilsonCHC3.443.3%24.8%12.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team SplitAdv? HRPF OppSP HRProb% xHROdds
C.J.CronCOLYes108SeanManaea28.2%+255
MannyMachadoSDNo108RyanFeltner27.2%+270
AustinRileyATLNo110AaronNola26.6%+275
WillyAdamesMILYes111MikeMinor26.1%+285
StuartFairchildCINYes111EricLauer26.1%+285
BryceHarperPHIYes106JakeOdorizzi26.0%+285
PaulGoldschmidtSTLYes107AndrewHeaney25.9%+285
AnthonySantanderBALYes110JoseUrquidy25.7%+290
YordanAlvarezHOUYes110DeanKremer25.2%+295
RodolfoCastroPITYes95JavierAssad24.2%+315
WilmerFloresSFYes93TommyHenry24.1%+315
ShoheiOhtaniLAAYes99LouieVarland24.0%+315
NolanArenadoSTLYes107AndrewHeaney24.0%+315
TreaTurnerLADYes107JoseQuintana24.0%+315
RhysHoskinsPHINo110JakeOdorizzi23.9%+320
PeteAlonsoNYMYes94ColeIrvin23.9%+320
AdolisGarciaTEXNo95CodyMorris23.8%+320
TyroneTaylorMILYes111MikeMinor23.5%+325
MikeTroutLAANo98LouieVarland23.5%+325
GiancarloStantonNYYYes103RichHill23.4%+330
AaronJudgeNYYYes103RichHill22.3%+350
EricHaaseDETNo106LucasGiolito22.3%+350
HunterRenfroeMILYes111MikeMinor21.8%+360
BryanReynoldsPITYes95JavierAssad21.4%+365
OneilCruzPITYes95JavierAssad21.4%+365
KyleTuckerHOUYes110DeanKremer21.0%+375
TeoscarHernandezTORYes94JeffreySprings20.9%+380
JoseAltuveHOUNo112DeanKremer20.9%+380
RafaelDeversBOSYes109GerritCole20.9%+380
JuanSotoSDYes109RyanFeltner20.9%+380
EvanLongoriaSFYes93TommyHenry20.8%+380
SalvadorPerezKCYes92MarcoGonzales20.6%+385
KyleSchwarberPHIYes106JakeOdorizzi20.4%+390
FranciscoLindorNYMYes94ColeIrvin20.4%+390
DannyJansenTORYes94JeffreySprings20.4%+390
JeremyPenaHOUNo112DeanKremer20.3%+390
MarcusSemienTEXNo95CodyMorris20.1%+400
AristidesAquinoCINYes111EricLauer19.9%+400
VladimirGuerreroJr.TORYes94JeffreySprings19.9%+405
CoreySeagerTEXYes101CodyMorris19.7%+405
JonahHeimTEXYes101CodyMorris19.7%+405
MookieBettsLADYes107JoseQuintana19.4%+415
JackSuwinskiPITYes95JavierAssad19.4%+415
KerryCarpenterDETYes111LucasGiolito19.3%+420
RowdyTellezMILNo113MikeMinor19.3%+420
DavidVillarSFYes93TommyHenry19.1%+420
MikeYastrzemskiSFNo99TommyHenry18.9%+430
MarkCanhaNYMYes94ColeIrvin18.7%+435
AndrewMcCutchenMILYes111MikeMinor18.6%+435
JoshBellSDYes109RyanFeltner18.4%+445
JakeCronenworthSDYes109RyanFeltner18.4%+445
LuisRengifoLAAYes99LouieVarland18.3%+445
MitchHanigerSEANo92BradySinger18.0%+455
NickMatonPHIYes106JakeOdorizzi18.0%+455
EloyJimenezCHWYes106EduardoRodriguez18.0%+455
AndrewVaughnCHWYes106EduardoRodriguez18.0%+455
NathanielLoweTEXYes101CodyMorris18.0%+455
CarlosCorreaMINNo98ShoheiOhtani17.8%+460
AlexBregmanHOUNo112DeanKremer17.8%+460
GeorgeSpringerTORYes94JeffreySprings17.6%+470
WilliamContrerasATLNo110AaronNola17.6%+470
JustinTurnerLADYes107JoseQuintana17.4%+475
ThairoEstradaSFYes93TommyHenry17.4%+475
BobbyWittJr.KCYes92MarcoGonzales17.3%+480
CalRaleighSEAYes92BradySinger17.3%+480
RandyArozarenaTBNo94MitchWhite17.2%+480
VictorCaratiniMILYes111MikeMinor17.2%+480
LuisUriasMILYes111MikeMinor17.2%+480
JonathanIndiaCINYes111EricLauer17.2%+480
ChasMcCormickHOUNo112DeanKremer17.1%+485
J.T.RealmutoPHINo110JakeOdorizzi16.9%+490
ElehurisMonteroCOLYes108SeanManaea16.9%+495
OscarGonzalezCLENo95JonGray16.8%+495
AlbertPujolsSTLYes107AndrewHeaney16.7%+500
MichaelHarrisIIATLYes106AaronNola16.7%+500
MichaelBrosseauMILYes111MikeMinor16.5%+505
EduardoEscobarNYMYes94ColeIrvin16.3%+510
JoshDonaldsonNYYYes103RichHill16.2%+515
GleyberTorresNYYYes103RichHill16.2%+515
JoeyBartSFYes93TommyHenry16.2%+515
JoseRamirezCLEYes101JonGray16.1%+520
TommyEdmanSTLYes107AndrewHeaney16.0%+525
TaylorWardLAANo98LouieVarland16.0%+525
BrandonDrurySDNo108RyanFeltner16.0%+525
ElvisAndrusCHWYes106EduardoRodriguez15.9%+530
GunnarHendersonBALYes110JoseUrquidy15.8%+530
CarlosSantanaSEAYes92BradySinger15.5%+545
JonathanArandaTBYes92MitchWhite15.5%+545
HunterDozierKCYes92MarcoGonzales15.4%+545
J.D.MartinezBOSNo103GerritCole15.4%+550
BenGamelPITYes95JavierAssad15.3%+555
PaulDeJongSTLYes107AndrewHeaney15.3%+555
MickeyMoniakLAAYes99LouieVarland15.2%+560
MattChapmanTORYes94JeffreySprings15.1%+565
KyleFarmerCINYes111EricLauer15.0%+565
SeanMurphyOAKNo94ChrisBassitt14.9%+570
AnthonyRizzoNYYNo109RichHill14.8%+575
GioUrshelaMINNo98ShoheiOhtani14.8%+575
GarySanchezMINNo98ShoheiOhtani14.8%+575
AndresGimenezCLEYes101JonGray14.8%+575
ChristopherMorelCHCNo92BryseWilson14.6%+585
WillSmithLADYes107JoseQuintana14.6%+585
YoanMoncadaCHWYes106EduardoRodriguez14.4%+590
AustinHaysBALNo112JoseUrquidy14.3%+600
NelsonVelazquezCHCNo92BryseWilson14.0%+615
JoshJungTEXNo95CodyMorris13.8%+625
JeimerCandelarioDETYes111LucasGiolito13.7%+630
SethBrownOAKYes92ChrisBassitt13.7%+630
AustinSlaterSFYes93TommyHenry13.6%+635
AdleyRutschmanBALYes110JoseUrquidy13.6%+635
FreddieFreemanLADNo102JoseQuintana13.4%+645
ZachMcKinstryCHCYes95BryseWilson13.4%+650
MattThaissLAAYes99LouieVarland13.2%+660
BrianAndersonMIANo90JosiahGray13.1%+660
Ha-SeongKimSDNo108RyanFeltner13.1%+660
EliasDiazCOLYes108SeanManaea13.1%+660
BoBichetteTORYes94JeffreySprings13.1%+665
ChrisTaylorLADYes107JoseQuintana13.0%+670
TrayceThompsonLADYes107JoseQuintana13.0%+670
ChristianBethancourtTBNo94MitchWhite13.0%+670
J.D.DavisSFYes93TommyHenry12.9%+675
SpencerTorkelsonDETNo106LucasGiolito12.9%+675
TreyManciniHOUNo112DeanKremer12.8%+680
RamonUriasBALNo112JoseUrquidy12.8%+680
JorgeMateoBALNo112JoseUrquidy12.8%+680
JulioRodriguezSEANo92BradySinger12.8%+685
XanderBogaertsBOSNo103GerritCole12.6%+690
DansbySwansonATLNo110AaronNola12.6%+695
RileyAdamsWSHYes90BraxtonGarrett12.6%+695
JoeyMenesesWSHYes90BraxtonGarrett12.6%+695
JesseWinkerSEAYes92BradySinger12.4%+710
JarredKelenicSEAYes92BradySinger12.4%+710
JoseSiriTBNo94MitchWhite12.3%+710
DermisGarciaOAKNo94ChrisBassitt12.3%+710
VinniePasquantinoKCNo92MarcoGonzales12.3%+715
EmmanuelRiveraARIYes93CarlosRodon12.2%+715
JuanYepezSTLYes107AndrewHeaney12.2%+720
TyFranceSEANo92BradySinger12.1%+725
MartinMaldonadoHOUNo112DeanKremer12.0%+735
RyanMountcastleBALNo112JoseUrquidy12.0%+735
ChristianYelichMILNo113MikeMinor11.9%+735
LukeVoitWSHYes90BraxtonGarrett11.9%+740
LaneThomasWSHYes90BraxtonGarrett11.9%+740
GarrettCooperMIANo90JosiahGray11.9%+740
AustinRomineCINYes111EricLauer11.8%+750
LewinDiazMIAYes92JosiahGray11.7%+755
WanderFrancoTBYes92MitchWhite11.7%+755
MattOlsonATLYes106AaronNola11.7%+755
JoseAzocarSDNo108RyanFeltner11.6%+760
RandalGrichukCOLYes108SeanManaea11.5%+770
ConnorJoeCOLYes108SeanManaea11.5%+770
DylanCarlsonSTLYes107AndrewHeaney11.4%+775
A.J.PollockCHWYes106EduardoRodriguez11.3%+785
TommyPhamBOSNo103GerritCole11.2%+795
OswaldoCabreraNYYYes103RichHill11.0%+805
RonaldAcunaATLNo110AaronNola11.0%+805
BrandonMarshPHIYes106JakeOdorizzi10.9%+820
CarsonKellyARIYes93CarlosRodon10.8%+825
AustinBarnesLADYes107JoseQuintana10.6%+845
MJMelendezKCNo92MarcoGonzales10.6%+845
RileyGreeneDETYes111LucasGiolito10.5%+850
AustinHedgesCLENo95JonGray10.4%+860
JuricksonProfarSDYes109RyanFeltner10.3%+865
JJBledayMIAYes92JosiahGray10.3%+870
YandyDiazTBNo94MitchWhite10.3%+870
SheaLangeliersOAKNo94ChrisBassitt10.3%+870
Travisd'ArnaudATLNo110AaronNola10.2%+880
AlecBohmPHINo110JakeOdorizzi10.2%+880
BrysonStottPHIYes106JakeOdorizzi10.1%+890
ChristianWalkerARIYes93CarlosRodon10.1%+890
LuisGonzalezSFYes93TommyHenry10.1%+890
CharlesLeblancMIANo90JosiahGray9.9%+910
IanHappCHCYes95BryseWilson9.9%+910
JavierBaezDETNo106LucasGiolito9.9%+910
LuisGarciaWSHYes90BraxtonGarrett9.8%+920
AlexCallWSHYes90BraxtonGarrett9.8%+920
YadierMolinaSTLYes107AndrewHeaney9.7%+930
YasmaniGrandalCHWYes106EduardoRodriguez9.6%+940
AlejandroKirkTORYes94JeffreySprings9.4%+960
DavidBoteCHCNo92BryseWilson9.4%+965
VaughnGrissomATLNo110AaronNola9.4%+965
DaultonVarshoARINo99CarlosRodon9.4%+965
JordanLuplowARIYes93CarlosRodon9.3%+970
EdwardOlivaresKCYes92MarcoGonzales9.2%+985
CalMitchellPITYes95JavierAssad9.1%+995
SpencerSteerCINYes111EricLauer9.1%+995
JoshNaylorCLEYes101JonGray8.9%+1025
JeffMcNeilNYMNo92ColeIrvin8.8%+1040
JoseAbreuCHWYes106EduardoRodriguez8.8%+1040
JakeCaveMINYes99ShoheiOhtani8.7%+1050
FranmilReyesCHCNo92BryseWilson8.7%+1050
JoseMirandaMINNo98ShoheiOhtani8.5%+1085
ZackCollinsPITYes95JavierAssad8.4%+1090
MiguelCabreraDETNo106LucasGiolito8.2%+1115
MikeFordLAAYes99LouieVarland7.9%+1165
MattWallnerMINYes99ShoheiOhtani7.9%+1165
CedricMullinsBALYes110JoseUrquidy7.8%+1180
JonBertiMIANo90JosiahGray7.8%+1180